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402,751

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2,632

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UFC Fight Night: Morgan Charrière vs. Felipe Lima (Featherweight, Main Card)
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win Morgan Charrière vs. Felipe Lima?

Volume:
$1,379,239

Felipe Lima

 - Kalshi

Felipe Lima - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 5, 2026

Closed: Sep 5, 3:09 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Felipe Lima

View
100%
34%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$583,294
N/A
N/A
$409,424
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
42%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$20,446
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
37%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,602
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
19%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$19
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Morgan Charriere

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$564,202
N/A
N/A
$428,991
Settled
No
polymarket

Morgan Charrière vs. Felipe Lima

View
0%
35%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$205,913
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,406
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$980
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Charrière to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$797
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Lima to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$380
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC Fight Night bout between Morgan Charrière and Felipe Lima on September 5, 2026 will go over or under 0.5 rounds. Currently, the aggregated probability across Kalshi and Polymarket indicates a 99.5% chance of the fight going over 0.5 rounds, based on official information from the UFC as the resolution source. The event group includes markets for various fight outcomes, and all markets will resolve based on the official UFC declaration of the fight result. Keep an eye on the official weigh-in results on September 4, 2026, as any last-minute changes could impact the fight’s duration.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets resolve using the same official UFC outcome declarations, with consistent handling of draws, No Contests, cancellations, and timing thresholds.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the UFC

Core resolution logic:

  • Winner markets resolve to the officially declared winner; draws/No Contests/cancellations resolve 50-50
  • Method markets (KO/TKO, Submission) resolve based on UFC-defined stopping criteria; disqualifications resolve 'No'
  • Duration markets (O/U rounds) resolve based on actual elapsed time; exact threshold matches resolve 50-50
  • Any bout not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 19, 2026 triggers 50-50 where applicable

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact Threshold Match: If a duration market ends exactly at the listed threshold (e.g., 2:30 of Round 1 for O/U 0.5), it resolves 50-50
  • Disqualification: Any market specifying method of victory (KO/TKO, Submission) will resolve 'No' if the fight ends in disqualification
Timing: Resolution occurs after the official UFC declaration of the fight result, no later than September 19, 2026Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Morgan Charrière" if Morgan Charrière is officially declared the winner of the fight against Felipe Lima at UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse, scheduled for September 5, 2026. It will resolve to "Felipe Lima" if Felipe Lima is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 19, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

Markets resolve to Yes if the specified fighter wins the originally scheduled professional MMA fight. If postponed or delayed, markets remain open until the rescheduled fight concludes within two weeks. Ties or no contests result in a 50/50 resolution for both markets, while cancellations or reschedules exceeding two weeks trigger a fair price adjustment. These markets are independently operated and not endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC.

Frequently asked questions

The UFC featherweight fight market dashboard aggregates activity across multiple venues, giving you a live view of how traders price the outcome of this event. It tracks total volume of $1,379,239 and recent 24-hour volume of $1,319,674, showing consensus and divergence in real time. By monitoring this market, users can see how betting interest shifts before the main card bout concludes.

Key signals that could shift this market include last-minute fighter injuries, changes to training camp conditions, pre-fight media interviews indicating confidence or concern, and betting surges from large traders. Any update that alters the perceived likelihood of a particular outcome — even days before the event — may cause rapid price adjustments on both platforms.