TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Zachary Reese (Middleweight, Main Card)
Volume:
$2,347,215
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the UFC Fight Night middleweight bout between Michel Pereira and Zachary Reese scheduled for February 21, 2026. Markets span fight outcome (winner), method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), and fight duration (round thresholds). All markets reference official UFC resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Kalshi and Polymarket align on official UFC determination as the sole resolution authority, with identical edge-case handling (cancellation, postponement beyond March 7, 2026, no contest, and not-scored outcomes all resolve 50-50).
Primary resolution logic:
Official UFC (ufc.com) fight result and official announcementCore resolution logic:
- Fight Outcome: Resolves to the fighter officially declared the winner by UFC (Pereira or Reese), or 50-50 if draw, technical draw, no contest, or not scored
- Method of Victory - KO/TKO: Resolves Yes if either fighter wins by KO, TKO, referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage; No if decision, submission, or draw; 50-50 if no contest or not scored
- Method of Victory - Submission: Resolves Yes if either fighter wins by submission (tapout, verbal, or technical submission); No if decision, KO/TKO, or draw; 50-50 if no contest or not scored
- Method of Victory - Decision (Fight to Distance): Resolves Yes if fight goes full scheduled rounds and result determined by judges' scorecards (includes judge-decided draws); No if ends by KO/TKO, submission, or disqualification; 50-50 if no contest, not scored, or postponed beyond March 7, 2026
- Round Duration Over/Under: Resolves Over if fight continues past the specified round threshold time (0.5 rounds = past 2:30 R1; 1.5 rounds = past 2:30 R2; 2.5 rounds = past 2:30 R3); Under if ends before threshold; 50-50 if ends exactly at threshold or bout not scored/canceled/postponed beyond March 7, 2026
- Fighter-Specific KO/TKO: Resolves Yes only if the named fighter (Pereira or Reese) wins by KO/TKO; No if opponent wins by any method, fight goes to decision, or ends in draw; 50-50 if no contest or not scored
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Cancellation or Postponement: If the bout is canceled or postponed beyond March 7, 2026, all markets resolve 50-50
- No Contest or Not Scored: If the bout is ruled a no contest or not scored, all markets resolve 50-50
- Draw or Technical Draw: Fight outcome market resolves 50-50; method-specific markets (KO/TKO, submission, decision) resolve No unless explicitly stated otherwise (e.g., judge-decided draw resolves Yes for decision market)
- Disqualification: Fight outcome resolves to the non-disqualified fighter as winner; method markets (KO/TKO, submission) resolve No
- Exact Round Threshold: If fight ends exactly at the threshold time (e.g., 2:30 of Round 1 for 0.5 line), the market resolves 50-50
Timing:
Resolution occurs immediately upon official UFC announcement of the fight result. Deadline for resolution is March 7, 2026; any cancellation or postponement beyond this date triggers 50-50 resolution across all markets.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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