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404,028

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2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Main Card)

Volume:
$2,403,826

Sharabutdin Magomedov

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 27, 2026

Closed: Jun 27, 2:34 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Sharabutdin Magomedov

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$969,107
N/A
N/A
$716,077
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Magomedov to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,645
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$108,433
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$41,287
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$27,781
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$74
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Michel Pereira

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$835,996
N/A
N/A
$563,423
Settled
No
polymarket

Pereira to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,179
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$407,915
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,747
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$662
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks the duration of the middleweight UFC fight between Michel Pereira and Shara Magomedov, specifically whether the bout will end in 1.5 rounds or fewer. Aggregated data from Polymarket and Kalshi shows consensus at 100.0% for the over/under 1.5 rounds outcome, with resolution determined by official UFC records and announcements. Watch for the fight result on June 27, 2026, at UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres, which will settle all duration-based markets.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Kalshi resolve all markets using identical official UFC sources, edge-case definitions (No Contest, postponement cutoff of July 11, 2026), and method-of-victory thresholds; Kalshi's binary Yes/No structure for fighter win markets is functionally equivalent to Polymarket's named-outcome markets.Primary resolution logic: Official UFC records and announcements (ufc.com/events)

Core resolution logic:

  • Fight outcome resolves to the fighter officially declared winner by UFC, or 50-50 if draw, No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 11, 2026
  • Submission method resolves Yes if fight ends by tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to submission hold); resolves No for draw or disqualification; resolves 50-50 for No Contest or cancellation
  • KO/TKO method resolves Yes if fight ends by knockout, technical knockout, referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage; resolves No for draw or disqualification; resolves 50-50 for No Contest or cancellation
  • Round duration (Over/Under 0.5, 1.5, 2.5) resolves Over if fight continues past the 2:30 mark of the specified round; resolves Under if fight ends before that mark; resolves 50-50 if fight ends exactly at threshold or bout is not scored/canceled
  • Distance (Fight to Go the Distance) resolves Yes if fight completes all scheduled rounds and result is determined by judges' scorecards (including judge-decided draws); resolves No for early stoppages or technical decisions; resolves 50-50 for No Contest or cancellation

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact Round Threshold: If fight ends exactly at the 2:30 mark of a round (e.g., 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 Rounds markets), the market resolves 50-50
  • Draw or Technical Draw: Resolves to 50-50 on outcome markets; resolves No on method-specific markets (submission, KO/TKO); resolves Yes on distance market if judges' scorecards determined the draw after all rounds
  • No Contest or Not Scored: All markets resolve 50-50 if bout is ruled No Contest, not scored, or canceled
  • Postponement Beyond July 11, 2026: If fight is postponed beyond July 11, 2026, all markets resolve 50-50
  • Disqualification: Outcome market resolves 50-50; method-specific markets (submission, KO/TKO) resolve No; distance market resolves No
Timing: Resolution occurs on or shortly after the official UFC announcement of fight result, method, and duration, with a hard cutoff of July 11, 2026 for postponement eligibilityOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Michel Pereira" if Michel Pereira is officially declared the winner of the fight against Shara Magomedov at UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres, scheduled for June 27, 2026. It will resolve to "Shara Magomedov" if Shara Magomedov is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 11, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

This market covers the professional MMA fight between Sharabutdin Magomedov and Michel Pereira originally scheduled for June 27, 2026. Resolution depends on the fight's official outcome: if Magomedov wins, that market resolves to Yes; if Pereira wins, that market resolves to Yes. If the fight is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled fight concludes within two weeks. In the event of a tie or no contest, both fighter markets resolve to 50/50. Should the fight be cancelled or rescheduled more than two weeks away, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with established rules.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on peer-to-peer pricing rather than fixed sportsbook lines. Traders directly buy and sell shares reflecting their belief in each outcome, creating dynamic odds that shift with new information. Sportsbooks, by contrast, set fixed lines and adjust them to manage liability. Prediction market odds often reflect sharper, more granular sentiment because traders have direct financial exposure and can trade continuously, whereas sportsbook lines are designed for balanced action and profit margins.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and regulatory frameworks. Polymarket operates globally with a broader retail base, while Kalshi serves a US-focused audience under CFTC oversight. Differences in market depth, fee structures, and user interface can cause temporary price divergence. Additionally, traders may hold stronger convictions on one platform, or arbitrage opportunities may not close instantly due to withdrawal delays or platform-specific friction, allowing pricing gaps to persist.

Fighter news—injuries, training camp reports, or weight-cut complications—can shift odds significantly. Weigh-in results and official fighter statements may reveal conditioning or confidence levels. Betting line movement at major sportsbooks often precedes prediction market repricing as sharp bettors act first. Social media sentiment, analyst commentary, and any last-minute fight card changes also influence trader positioning. Close to the event, real-time fight footage or commentary during the bout itself will drive the most dramatic repricing as new information emerges.