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UFC Fight Night: Michael Aljarouj vs. Fabia Sintes (Flyweight, Prelims)
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win Michael Aljarouj vs. Fabia Sintes?

Volume:
$1,741,621

Fabia Sintes

 - Kalshi

Fabia Sintes - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 5, 2026

Closed: Sep 5, 1:39 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Fabia Sintes

View
100%
54%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$518,430
N/A
N/A
$317,144
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
55%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,027
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
33%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$737
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
43%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$18
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Michael Aljarouj

View
0%
55%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$998,325
N/A
N/A
$605,398
Settled
No
polymarket

Michael Aljarouj vs. Fabia Sintes

View
0%
51%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$217,803
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Aljarouj to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,263
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Sintes to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,035
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$691
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
31%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$291
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC Flyweight fight between Michael Aljarouj and Fabia Sintes on September 5, 2026 will go over or under 1.5 rounds. Currently, the consensus probability across Polymarket and Kalshi is 99.6% for “O/U 1.5 Rounds”. Resolution will be based on official information from the UFC. Keep an eye on the fight itself, as the outcome will be determined by the official result declared by the UFC following the event on September 5, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets across Polymarket and Kalshi resolve based on the same official UFC results and share consistent criteria for win conditions, draw, no contest, and cancellation.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the UFC

Core resolution logic:

  • The fight winner is determined by the official UFC declaration
  • Draws, no contests, cancellations, and postponements beyond September 19, 2026 resolve as specified (e.g., 50-50 for some markets)
  • Specific markets (KO/TKO, submission, rounds) have defined thresholds that must be met for resolution

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Draw or Technical Draw: Resolves as 50-50 for winner markets and as 'Yes' for the 'Fight to Go the Distance' market if decided by judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds
  • No Contest or Cancellation: Resolves as 50-50 for most markets, unless specific market rules state otherwise
  • Exact Threshold Meeting: If a round duration market ends exactly at the threshold, it resolves as 50-50
Timing: Resolution occurs after the official UFC declaration of the fight result, no later than September 19, 2026Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Michael Aljarouj" if Michael Aljarouj is officially declared the winner of the fight against Fabia Sintes at UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse, scheduled for September 5, 2026. It will resolve to "Fabia Sintes" if Fabia Sintes is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 19, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the winner of the Aljarouj vs Sintes professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 5, 2026. If Michael Aljarouj wins, his market resolves to Yes; if Fabia Sintes wins, hers resolves to Yes. If the fight is postponed or delayed, markets remain open until the rescheduled fight concludes within two weeks. A tie or no contest results in a 50/50 resolution for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled beyond two weeks, the market resolves to a fair price as determined by the rules. These markets are not endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC, and any references to UFC are descriptive only.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Aljarouj vs. Sintes fight market aggregates real-time data from multiple prediction platforms, showing how traders price the likelihood of various outcomes. It displays current probabilities, volume of $1,741,621, and 24-hour volume of $1,409,749. This centralized view helps users compare sentiment across venues and spot shifts in expectations as the event approaches.

Several signals could shift probabilities in this market before it closes. Key events include pre-fight media appearances, training updates or injuries reported by reliable sources, and changes in betting volumes on either platform. Any last-minute changes in fighter status or weigh-in results may also cause rapid movements in the market as traders react to new information.