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UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherweight, Main Card)
kalshi
polymarket

UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherweight, Main Card)

Volume:
$1,040,049

Murtazali Magomedov

 - Kalshi

Murtazali Magomedov - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 25, 2026

Closed: Jun 20, 9:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Murtazali Magomedov

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$321,661
N/A
N/A
$265,216
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,379
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Melsik Baghdasaryan

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$590,682
N/A
N/A
$564,152
Settled
No
polymarket

Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$104,705
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,326
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,899
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,204
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Magomedov to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$132
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$31
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Baghdasaryan to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This event group covers a UFC Fight Night featherweight bout between Melsik Baghdasaryan and Murtazali Magomedov scheduled for June 20, 2026. Markets span winner determination, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), fight duration thresholds, and distance completion.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Event name and edge-case handling divergence. Kalshi omits event name and edge-case rules; Polymarket explicitly specifies event as 'UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi' with comprehensive 50-50 fallback logic for draws, no-contests, disqualifications, and postponements beyond July 4, 2026.Hero tip: Before settlement, confirm that both platforms reference the same fight card date and event. Polymarket's explicit cancellation cutoff (July 4, 2026) and 50-50 resolution for edge cases provide clearer settlement certainty. Kalshi's silence on these scenarios means you must independently verify fight status and method of victory to avoid disputes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Two simple binary markets: 'If Melsik Baghdasaryan wins... resolves Yes' and 'If Murtazali Magomedov wins... resolves Yes.' No event name provided. No explicit handling of draws, no-contests, disqualifications, or cancellations. No edge-case resolution rules stated.
  • Polymarket: Comprehensive suite of 9 markets covering winner, method (KO/TKO, submission), duration thresholds (O/U 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds), and distance completion. Explicitly names event as 'UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi, scheduled for June 20, 2026.' All markets include detailed edge-case rules: draws, disqualifications, no-contests, and postponements beyond July 4, 2026 resolve 50-50. Exact threshold matches resolve 50-50.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Melsik Baghdasaryan" if Melsik Baghdasaryan is officially declared the winner of the fight against Murtazali Magomedov at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi, scheduled for June 20, 2026. It will resolve to "Murtazali Magomedov" if Murtazali Magomedov is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 4, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the official result of the Baghdasaryan vs Magomedov professional MMA fight originally scheduled for June 20, 2026. If the fight is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled fight concludes within two weeks. In the event of a tie or no contest, the market resolves 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled beyond two weeks, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with the rules.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price fights differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. This market's odds reflect what thousands of independent traders believe will happen, often incorporating real-time fighter news, injury reports, and betting patterns that sportsbooks may lag on. Comparing this market's implied probabilities to your preferred sportsbook can reveal value opportunities, especially in the hours before the event when new information emerges.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different odds for the same fight outcome due to variations in their user bases, liquidity depth, and fee structures. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Traders on one platform may have different risk appetites or information access than those on the other, causing temporary price gaps. Platform-specific incentives, promotional activity, and order-book depth also influence how quickly each venue responds to new information. These spreads typically narrow closer to the event as arbitrageurs exploit the differences, making early tracking valuable for identifying mispricings.

Fighter news—injuries, training camp updates, or public statements—can shift odds significantly. Weigh-in results, late withdrawals, and replacement announcements are major catalysts. Social media momentum, analyst commentary, and sharp money positioning often precede visible price moves. Changes in fighter rankings or recent performance by either competitor can also influence trader sentiment. As the event date nears, any official promotion announcements or venue changes may trigger repricing. Monitoring MMA news outlets and fighter social accounts helps you anticipate moves before they're fully reflected in this market.