TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)
polymarket
kalshi

UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)

Volume:
$1,159,589

Beatriz Mesquita

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 25, 2026

Closed: Jun 20, 7:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Beatriz Mesquita

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$341,488
N/A
N/A
$252,802
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Mesquita to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$118
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,845
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,561
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Melissa Mullins

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$676,352
N/A
N/A
$572,082
Settled
No
polymarket

Mullins to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$52
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$128,253
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,669
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,189
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$62
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This event group covers a women's bantamweight preliminary fight between Melissa Mullins and Bia Mesquita scheduled for UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi on June 20, 2026. Markets span multiple outcome dimensions: winner determination, method of victory (KO/TKO vs. submission), round duration thresholds, and distance completion.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket defines comprehensive method-of-victory and round-duration markets with explicit edge-case resolution (50-50 for No Contest, cancellation, postponement beyond July 4, 2026). Kalshi provides only a binary winner market with minimal specification, creating different resolution scopes and potential timing misalignment on edge cases.Hero tip: Trade Polymarket for method-specific exposure and round-duration hedges; use Kalshi only for simple winner exposure. On settlement, confirm Kalshi's handling of No Contest and postponement scenarios, as these trigger 50-50 on Polymarket but may be undefined on Kalshi.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Seven distinct markets covering winner, Mullins KO/TKO, Mesquita KO/TKO, submission, O/U 0.5/1.5/2.5 rounds, and distance completion. All method and duration markets include explicit 50-50 resolution for No Contest, non-scored bouts, cancellations, or postponements beyond July 4, 2026. Key Quote: 'If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 4, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50.'
  • Kalshi: Single binary market: resolves Yes if either Mullins or Mesquita wins the fight originally scheduled June 20, 2026. No specification of method, duration, or edge-case handling (No Contest, postponement, cancellation). Key Quote: 'If Melissa Mullins wins the Mesquita vs Mullins professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Jun 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Melissa Mullins" if Melissa Mullins is officially declared the winner of the fight against Bia Mesquita at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi, scheduled for June 20, 2026. It will resolve to "Bia Mesquita" if Bia Mesquita is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 4, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the official result of the Mesquita vs Mullins professional MMA fight originally scheduled for June 20, 2026. If the fight is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled fight concludes within two weeks. In the event of a tie or no contest, the market resolves 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled beyond two weeks, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with the rules.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price fights differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract a margin, while prediction markets reflect pure trader belief through continuous price discovery. This market aggregates trader positions across platforms, which can diverge from traditional sportsbook lines due to different liquidity pools, user demographics, and information sets. Comparing both sources often reveals valuable arbitrage opportunities or consensus shifts that precede official line moves.

Polymarket and Kalshi may show different prices on the same fight outcome for several reasons. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts distinct trader bases with varying risk tolerances and information access, leading to temporary pricing gaps. Market depth, fee structures, and settlement rule clarity also influence how quickly prices converge. Monitoring both venues helps identify mispricings and signals where informed traders are positioning ahead of the event.