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UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. MarQuel Mederos (Lightweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Mason Jones vs. MarQuel Mederos?

Volume:
$2,400,488

Marquel Mederos

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 23, 2026

Closed: Aug 22, 9:14 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Marquel Mederos

View
100%
74%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$889,551
N/A
N/A
$633,237
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Mason Jones vs. MarQuel Mederos

View
0%
75%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$519,854
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$2,417
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
69%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$463
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Mederos to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
92%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$218
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Mason Jones

View
0%
75%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$968,128
N/A
N/A
$838,603
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
59%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,465
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
64%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,069
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
21%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,716
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Jones to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
30%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,008
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
81%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$599
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC Fight Night bout between Mason Jones and MarQuel Mederos, scheduled for August 22, 2026, will last more than 0.5 rounds. The aggregated consensus across Polymarket and Kalshi shows a leading probability of 99.0%. Resolution is determined by the official UFC announcement. Watch for the official fight result on August 23, 2026, the day after the event, which will confirm whether the bout concluded within the first round.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms agree on using official UFC results as the resolution source, with consistent handling of draws, No Contests, cancellations, and threshold edge cases.Primary resolution logic: Official UFC announcement

Core resolution logic:

  • Winner markets resolve to the declared winner (Mason Jones or MarQuel Mederos)
  • Method markets (KO/TKO, Submission) resolve only if the fight ends by that specific method
  • Go the Distance resolves Yes if all scheduled rounds are completed regardless of result
  • Over/Under round markets resolve based on whether fight duration crosses specified thresholds
  • All markets resolve 50-50 if fight is canceled, postponed beyond September 5, 2026, or ruled No Contest

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact Threshold: If a fight ends exactly on a threshold (e.g., end of round 1 for O/U 0.5), it resolves 50-50
  • Disqualification: Any market resolving to No/50-50 if fight ends in disqualification
Timing: Resolution occurs after official UFC announcement of fight result, no later than September 5, 2026Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Mason Jones" if Mason Jones is officially declared the winner of the fight against MarQuel Mederos at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues, scheduled for August 22, 2026. It will resolve to "MarQuel Mederos" if MarQuel Mederos is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 5, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the winner of the Mederos vs Jones professional MMA fight originally scheduled for August 22, 2026. If Marquel Mederos wins, his market resolves to Yes; if Mason Jones wins, his market resolves to Yes. In the event of a tie or no contest, both markets resolve at 50/50. If the fight is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled fight concludes, provided it occurs within two weeks of the original date. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to more than two weeks beyond the original date, the market resolves to a fair price. These rules ensure the market adapts to various scenarios while maintaining fairness and transparency for participants.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Jones vs Mederos fight market aggregates real-time data from multiple venues, showing how traders across Polymarket and Kalshi price this contest. It displays current probabilities, volume of $2,400,488, and 24-hour volume of $1,752,313, letting you see consensus views and divergences as fight date approaches. This centralized view helps you monitor sentiment shifts around news, rankings, and pre-fight hype for this market.

Key signals that could shift this market include injury updates, training camp performance leaks, changes in betting volumes on either fighter, and pre-fight media appearances that influence public perception. Any last-minute fight cancellations or rematches would also reshape probabilities, while spikes in $1,752,313 often signal that new information has triggered rapid reassessment among traders.