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2,388,728,490

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$1,416,970,024

400,720

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30,097

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Card)

Volume:
$1,682,551

David Martinez

 - Kalshi

David Martinez - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 1, 2026

Closed: Mar 1, 2:20 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

David Martinez

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$350,810
N/A
N/A
$343,820
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,232
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$993
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$233
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$218
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Marlon Vera

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$685,518
N/A
N/A
$611,700
Settled
No
polymarket

Vera vs. Martinez

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$634,472
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Vera to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,146
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Martinez to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$493
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$228
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$208
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This event group covers a UFC bantamweight main card fight between Marlon Vera and David Martinez scheduled for February 28, 2026. Markets span multiple outcome types: winner determination, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission), fight duration thresholds, and whether the bout goes the distance.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket defines a comprehensive, multi-market suite with explicit edge-case resolution (draws, disqualifications, no-contests, postponement cutoff of March 14, 2026, and 50-50 splits). Kalshi provides only a simple binary winner market with no method specification or postponement cutoff, creating ambiguity on how postponements and edge cases are handled.Hero tip: Polymarket traders should focus on method-of-victory and duration markets for precision; Kalshi traders face ambiguity on postponement handling and should seek clarification on whether a postponement beyond Feb 28 but before March 14 resolves as Yes or No. Do not assume Kalshi follows Polymarket's March 14 cutoff.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Seven distinct markets covering winner (Vera vs Martinez binary), KO/TKO (general and fighter-specific), submission, round thresholds (0.5, 1.5, 2.5), and distance. All include explicit edge-case handling: draws and disqualifications resolve No; no-contests, cancellations, and postponements beyond March 14, 2026 resolve 50-50. Exact-threshold ties (e.g., finish at 2:30 of a round) resolve 50-50. Resolution source: official UFC information.
  • Kalshi: Single binary market: resolves Yes if Marlon Vera OR David Martinez wins the fight originally scheduled for Feb 28, 2026. No method specification, no edge-case handling for draws or disqualifications, no postponement cutoff date specified. Resolution source not explicitly stated.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.