TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a UFC bantamweight main card fight between Marlon Vera and David Martinez scheduled for February 28, 2026. Markets span multiple outcome types: winner determination, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission), fight duration thresholds, and whether the bout goes the distance.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines a comprehensive, multi-market suite with explicit edge-case resolution (draws, disqualifications, no-contests, postponement cutoff of March 14, 2026, and 50-50 splits). Kalshi provides only a simple binary winner market with no method specification or postponement cutoff, creating ambiguity on how postponements and edge cases are handled.Hero Tip:
Polymarket traders should focus on method-of-victory and duration markets for precision; Kalshi traders face ambiguity on postponement handling and should seek clarification on whether a postponement beyond Feb 28 but before March 14 resolves as Yes or No. Do not assume Kalshi follows Polymarket's March 14 cutoff.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Seven distinct markets covering winner (Vera vs Martinez binary), KO/TKO (general and fighter-specific), submission, round thresholds (0.5, 1.5, 2.5), and distance. All include explicit edge-case handling: draws and disqualifications resolve No; no-contests, cancellations, and postponements beyond March 14, 2026 resolve 50-50. Exact-threshold ties (e.g., finish at 2:30 of a round) resolve 50-50. Resolution source: official UFC information.Kalshi:
Single binary market: resolves Yes if Marlon Vera OR David Martinez wins the fight originally scheduled for Feb 28, 2026. No method specification, no edge-case handling for draws or disqualifications, no postponement cutoff date specified. Resolution source not explicitly stated.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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