TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Prelims)
Volume:
$1,863,062
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Marcin Tybura and Tyrell Fortune are scheduled to compete in a heavyweight preliminary bout at UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer on March 28, 2026. Markets cover fight outcome, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), fight duration (round thresholds), and whether the bout goes to a judges' decision. All resolution depends on official UFC determination of the fight result.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution scopes. Kalshi resolves YES if either fighter wins (any method), making it impossible for the market to resolve NO. Polymarket offers specific method-based markets (KO/TKO, submission, distance) with mutually exclusive outcomes. These two platforms cannot produce consistent results for the same underlying event.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-trade between Kalshi and Polymarket on this fight group. Kalshi's binary 'either fighter wins' structure guarantees YES resolution and is logically incoherent as a prediction market. Polymarket's method-specific markets are resolvable and independent. Treat them as separate event spaces.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi defines two markets that both resolve YES if either Marcin Tybura or Tyrell Fortune wins, with no NO outcome possible. The rules state 'If Marcin Tybura wins...then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Tyrell Fortune wins...then the market resolves to Yes,' leaving no logical path to NO resolution. This violates binary market structure and creates a data integrity failure.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers eight independent, method-specific markets (Tybura KO/TKO, Fortune KO/TKO, O/U 0.5/1.5/2.5 Rounds, Submission, KO/TKO, Distance, Head-to-Head Winner) with mutually exclusive resolution paths. Each market resolves YES or NO based on fight outcome and method, with 50-50 fallback for cancellation/postponement beyond April 11, 2026. All markets reference 'official information from the UFC' as the resolution source.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.