TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Tyrell Fortune
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Mar 29, 2026
Closed: Mar 28, 11:20 PM EST
Kalshi
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Total markets: 11
Description
Marcin Tybura and Tyrell Fortune are scheduled to compete in a heavyweight preliminary bout at UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer on March 28, 2026. Markets cover fight outcome, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), fight duration (round thresholds), and whether the bout goes to a judges' decision. All resolution depends on official UFC determination of the fight result.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution scopes. Kalshi resolves YES if either fighter wins (any method), making it impossible for the market to resolve NO. Polymarket offers specific method-based markets (KO/TKO, submission, distance) with mutually exclusive outcomes. These two platforms cannot produce consistent results for the same underlying event.Hero tip: Do not cross-trade between Kalshi and Polymarket on this fight group. Kalshi's binary 'either fighter wins' structure guarantees YES resolution and is logically incoherent as a prediction market. Polymarket's method-specific markets are resolvable and independent. Treat them as separate event spaces.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi defines two markets that both resolve YES if either Marcin Tybura or Tyrell Fortune wins, with no NO outcome possible. The rules state 'If Marcin Tybura wins...then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Tyrell Fortune wins...then the market resolves to Yes,' leaving no logical path to NO resolution. This violates binary market structure and creates a data integrity failure.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers eight independent, method-specific markets (Tybura KO/TKO, Fortune KO/TKO, O/U 0.5/1.5/2.5 Rounds, Submission, KO/TKO, Distance, Head-to-Head Winner) with mutually exclusive resolution paths. Each market resolves YES or NO based on fight outcome and method, with 50-50 fallback for cancellation/postponement beyond April 11, 2026. All markets reference 'official information from the UFC' as the resolution source.
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