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UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Aleksandar Rakic (Heavyweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Aleksandar Rakic (Heavyweight, Main Card)

Volume:
$3,580,692

Aleksandar Rakic

 - Kalshi

Aleksandar Rakic - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 2, 2026

Closed: Aug 1, 2:49 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Aleksandar Rakic

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,558,598
N/A
N/A
$1,212,820
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$24,716
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,518
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$94
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$33
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Marcin Tybura

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,227,629
N/A
N/A
$1,099,497
Settled
No
polymarket

Marcin Tybura vs. Aleksandar Rakic

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$762,722
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Rakic to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,605
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Tybura to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,601
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$794
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$380
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC Fight Night bout between Marcin Tybura and Aleksandar Rakic, scheduled for August 1, 2026, will go the distance. The aggregated consensus probability for the fight going the distance is 99.5%, drawn from Polymarket and Kalshi, with resolution based on official information from the UFC. Watch for the official fight result on August 2, 2026, to confirm whether the bout lasted all scheduled rounds.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets across Polymarket and Kalshi resolve based on the same official UFC result, with consistent handling of draws, No Contests, cancellations, and postponements.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the UFC

Core resolution logic:

  • The winner is determined by the UFC's official declaration.
  • KO/TKO, submission, and round-based outcomes are determined by official fight records.
  • Draws, No Contests, cancellations, or postponements beyond August 15, 2026 result in 50-50 resolution for all markets.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Draw or Technical Draw: Resolves to 50-50 for winner markets and 'Yes' for 'Fight to Go the Distance' if decided by judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds.
  • No Contest or Canceled Fight: All markets resolve to 50-50 unless the fight is postponed beyond August 15, 2026.
Timing: Resolution occurs after the official UFC announcement of the fight result, no later than August 15, 2026.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Marcin Tybura" if Marcin Tybura is officially declared the winner of the fight against Aleksandar Rakic at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez, scheduled for August 1, 2026. It will resolve to "Aleksandar Rakic" if Aleksandar Rakic is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 15, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

If Aleksandar Rakic wins the Rakic vs Tybura professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Marcin Tybura wins the Rakic vs Tybura professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Tybura vs Rakic fight market aggregates betting activity across multiple venues, showing real-time probabilities and volume trends. It tracks how traders on different platforms price the chances of various outcomes, offering a consensus view of market sentiment. With current volume at $3,580,692 and 24-hour volume of $3,332,755, the dashboard highlights how expectations shift as the event approaches. This unified display helps users compare dynamics across platforms and gauge collective wisdom ahead of the fight.

Several signals could shift probabilities in this market before it settles. Key events include pre-fight media appearances, training updates, injury reports, or changes in betting volumes on either platform. Significant news — such as a fighter pulling out, a training camp setback, or a surge in public support — may cause rapid repricing. Additionally, broader trends like changing fighter form or shifting odds on sportsbooks can influence trader sentiment and drive movement on Polymarket and Kalshi as the August date approaches.