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UFC Fight Night: Manoel Sousa vs. Richie Miranda (Lightweight, Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

UFC Fight Night: Manoel Sousa vs. Richie Miranda (Lightweight, Prelims)

Volume:
$2,417,950

Manoel Sousa

 - Kalshi

Manoel Sousa - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 8, 2026

Closed: Aug 8, 6:44 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Manoel Sousa

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,091,939
N/A
N/A
$752,059
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Manoel Sousa vs. Richie Miranda

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$352,925
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
57%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10,143
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
30%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,975
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,531
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$751
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Richie Miranda

View
0%
27%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$951,272
N/A
N/A
$601,246
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,117
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Sousa to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
40%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,912
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
51%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$287
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Miranda to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$98
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC Fight Night bout between Manoel Sousa and Richie Miranda will last more than half a round. The aggregated consensus probability for the leading outcome, O/U 0.5 Rounds, is 99.5% across Kalshi and Polymarket. Resolutions are determined by official information from the UFC. Watch for the scheduled fight date on August 8, 2026, as it will confirm the outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use the same official UFC result as the resolution source with consistent rules for draws, No Contests, cancellations, and postponements.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the UFC

Core resolution logic:

  • The winner is determined by the official UFC declaration
  • Draws, No Contests, cancellations, or postponements beyond August 22, 2026 resolve to 50-50 for outcome markets
  • Round-based markets resolve based on whether the fight lasts beyond specified thresholds, with exact thresholds resolving to 50-50
  • KO/TKO and Submission markets resolve based on the official method of victory as declared by the UFC

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact Threshold: If the fight ends exactly at the threshold for round-based markets, it resolves to 50-50
  • Disqualification: If the fight ends in disqualification, outcome markets resolve to No and method markets resolve to No
Timing: Resolution occurs after the official UFC declaration of the fight result, no later than August 22, 2026Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Manoel Sousa" if Manoel Sousa is officially declared the winner of the fight against Richie Miranda at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld, scheduled for August 8, 2026. It will resolve to "Richie Miranda" if Richie Miranda is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 22, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

If Manoel Sousa wins the Sousa vs Miranda professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Richie Miranda wins the Sousa vs Miranda professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Sousa vs. Miranda fight market aggregates real-time data from multiple venues, showing how traders price the likelihood of different outcomes. It tracks volume of $2,417,950 and 24-hour volume of $2,295,482, letting you see consensus views and divergence across platforms. This centralized view helps you monitor sentiment shifts as the event approaches, with updates reflecting new information from fight news, fighter performance, and betting trends.