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UFC Fight Night: Macy Chiasson vs. Ailin Perez (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

UFC Fight Night: Macy Chiasson vs. Ailin Perez (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)

Volume:
$1,004,789

Ailin Perez

 - Kalshi

Ailin Perez - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 1, 2026

Closed: Feb 28, 11:40 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Ailin Perez

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$226,038
N/A
N/A
$202,970
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,704
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$328
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$257
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$198
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Chiasson vs. Perez

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$630,144
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Macy Chiasson

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$145,004
N/A
N/A
$95,094
Settled
No
polymarket

Perez to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$287
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Chiasson to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$285
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$282
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$262
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This event group covers multiple prediction markets for the UFC Fight Night women's bantamweight preliminary bout between Macy Chiasson and Ailin Perez scheduled for February 28, 2026. Markets span fighter moneylines, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), fight duration (over/under round thresholds), and the overall fight winner. Resolution depends on official UFC fight results and timing data.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical resolution criteria: official UFC declaration of fight outcome, method of victory, and round duration determine all market results, with consistent 50-50 treatment for cancellations, postponements beyond March 14, 2026, no-contests, and non-scored bouts.Primary resolution logic: Official UFC fight results and timing data from ufc.com

Core resolution logic:

  • Fighter moneyline (Kalshi): Resolves Yes if either Chiasson or Perez is declared the official winner by UFC
  • Fight winner (Polymarket): Resolves to Chiasson if she wins, Perez if she wins, 50-50 if draw/no-contest/postponed beyond March 14
  • KO/TKO markets: Resolve Yes if fight ends by knockout, technical knockout, referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage
  • Submission market: Resolves Yes if fight ends by tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to submission hold)
  • Decision/Distance market: Resolves Yes if fight goes full scheduled rounds and result determined by judges' scorecards; includes draws decided by judges after all rounds
  • Round duration (O/U 0.5, 1.5, 2.5): Resolves Over if fight continues past the 2:30 mark of the specified round; Under if ends before that mark
  • Disqualification: Resolves No for KO/TKO/submission markets; resolves 50-50 for winner market
  • Draw or technical draw: Resolves 50-50 for winner market; resolves No for method-of-victory markets; resolves Yes for distance market if judges' decision after all rounds

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact round threshold timing: If fight ends exactly at the threshold (e.g., 2:30 of Round 1 for 0.5 line), that specific market resolves 50-50
  • No-contest or not scored: All markets resolve 50-50 if bout is ruled no-contest, not scored, or canceled
  • Postponement beyond March 14, 2026: All markets resolve 50-50 if fight is postponed beyond March 14, 2026
  • Technical decision or technical draw before all rounds: Resolves No for distance market; resolves 50-50 for winner market
  • Disqualification: Resolves No for method-of-victory markets (KO/TKO, submission); resolves 50-50 for winner market
Timing: Resolution occurs on or shortly after February 28, 2026, upon official UFC announcement of fight result and timing. Postponements beyond March 14, 2026 trigger 50-50 resolution. Round duration markets resolve based on official fight clock timing from UFC records.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.