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UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Matthieu Letho Duclos (Middleweight, Prelims)
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win Luis Felipe Dias vs. Matthieu Letho Duclos?

Volume:
$760,763

Matthieu Letho Duclos

 - Kalshi

Matthieu Letho Duclos - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 5, 2026

Closed: Sep 5, 12:40 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Matthieu Letho Duclos

View
100%
49%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$300,023
N/A
N/A
$228,697
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
43%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$801
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
20%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$63
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Luis Felipe Dias

View
0%
50%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$343,447
N/A
N/A
$312,887
Settled
No
polymarket

Luis Felipe Dias vs. Matthieu Letho Duclos

View
0%
48%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$84,525
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30,680
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Dias to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
27%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$964
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
44%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$259
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Letho Duclos to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
66%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
26%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether Matthieu Letho Duclos will win his UFC Fight Night middleweight bout against Luis Felipe Dias by KO or TKO. Currently, the consensus probability across Polymarket and Kalshi is 100.0%. Resolution will be based on official information from the UFC regarding the fight result. This group of markets covers various outcomes of the bout, including winner determination, fight duration, and method of victory. Keep an eye on the fight itself, scheduled for September 5, 2026, as the outcome will determine resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets across Polymarket and Kalshi resolve using the same official UFC result declarations with identical edge-case handling for draws, No Contests, cancellations, and threshold exactness.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the UFC

Core resolution logic:

  • Winner markets resolve to the officially declared winner (Dias or Duclos); 50-50 for draws, No Contests, cancellations, or postponements beyond September 19, 2026
  • Method markets (KO/TKO, submission) resolve Yes only if the fight ends by that specific method; No for all other outcomes including draws, disqualifications, and 50-50 for unresolved cases
  • Round threshold markets (O/U 0.5, 1.5, 2.5) resolve Over if the fight lasts beyond the listed round/time threshold, Under if it ends before, and 50-50 for exact thresholds, cancellations, or unresolved bouts

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact Threshold: If a round threshold market ends exactly at the threshold time (e.g., 2:30 of Round 1 for O/U 0.5), it resolves 50-50
  • Cancellation/Postponement: Any market resolves 50-50 if the bout is canceled, postponed beyond September 19, 2026, or not scored
  • Draw/Technical Draw: Winner markets resolve 50-50; method markets resolve No; round threshold markets resolve Yes only if the fight goes the full scheduled distance
Timing: Resolution occurs after the official UFC declaration of the fight result, no later than September 19, 2026Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Luis Felipe Dias" if Luis Felipe Dias is officially declared the winner of the fight against Matthieu Letho Duclos at UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse, scheduled for September 5, 2026. It will resolve to "Matthieu Letho Duclos" if Matthieu Letho Duclos is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 19, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the winner of the Duclos vs Dias professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 5, 2026. If Matthieu Letho Duclos wins, his market resolves to Yes; if Luis Felipe Dias wins, his market resolves to Yes. If the fight is postponed or delayed, markets remain open until the rescheduled fight concludes within two weeks. A tie or no contest results in a 50/50 resolution for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled beyond two weeks, the market resolves to a fair price as determined by the rules. These markets are not endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC, and any references to UFC are descriptive only.

Frequently asked questions

In the run-up to resolution, any news about fighter injuries, training updates, or changes to the fight's location can shift this market. Media appearances, betting trends on other sportsbooks, and even early live betting lines from the event venue may influence trader sentiment. As the event draws closer, any last-minute announcements are likely to produce the most significant price movements, so monitoring credible MMA news sources is key.