TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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UFC Fight Night: Luan Lacerda vs. Hecher Sosa (Bantamweight, Prelims)
polymarket
kalshi

UFC Fight Night: Luan Lacerda vs. Hecher Sosa (Bantamweight, Prelims)

Volume:
$355,168

Hecher Sosa

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 15, 2026

Closed: Mar 14, 10:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Hecher Sosa

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$19,788
N/A
N/A
$19,299
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Sosa to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$179
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,658
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,225
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$211
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$181
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Luan Lacerda vs. Hecher Sosa

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$293,536
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Luan Luiz Lacerda

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37,116
N/A
N/A
$36,055
Settled
No
polymarket

Lacerda to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$93
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,061
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$120
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This event group covers a bantamweight preliminary fight between Luan Lacerda and Hecher Sosa scheduled for UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos on March 14, 2026. Markets span fight outcome, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission), round duration thresholds, and distance completion.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket offers method-specific and round-duration markets with comprehensive edge-case rules, while Kalshi provides only a binary winner market with minimal specification. The divergence is in scope and granularity, not logical contradiction.Hero tip: Polymarket markets are ideal for precise method-of-victory or round-duration bets; Kalshi is a simple winner-call. A draw or no-contest will resolve Polymarket markets to 50-50 but Kalshi to No (since neither fighter is declared the winner). Monitor UFC official sources closely for all edge cases, especially postponement beyond March 28, 2026, which triggers 50-50 on Polymarket but likely No on Kalshi.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Comprehensive method and timing markets. Resolves KO/TKO, submission, distance, and round thresholds (0.5, 1.5, 2.5) to Yes/No with explicit 50-50 rules for exact thresholds and no-contest/postponement beyond March 28. Key Quote: If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 28, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50.
  • Kalshi: Binary winner determination only. Resolves to Yes if either Sosa or Lacerda wins; no method or timing specification provided. Key Quote: If Hecher Sosa wins the Lacerda vs Sosa professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Mar 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.