TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$230,557,910
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,202,344,730
501,342
Markets across
13,602
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,822
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: Luan Lacerda vs. Hecher Sosa (Bantamweight, Prelims)
Volume:
$355,168
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a bantamweight preliminary fight between Luan Lacerda and Hecher Sosa scheduled for UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos on March 14, 2026. Markets span fight outcome, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission), round duration thresholds, and distance completion.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket offers method-specific and round-duration markets with comprehensive edge-case rules, while Kalshi provides only a binary winner market with minimal specification. The divergence is in scope and granularity, not logical contradiction.Hero Tip:
Polymarket markets are ideal for precise method-of-victory or round-duration bets; Kalshi is a simple winner-call. A draw or no-contest will resolve Polymarket markets to 50-50 but Kalshi to No (since neither fighter is declared the winner). Monitor UFC official sources closely for all edge cases, especially postponement beyond March 28, 2026, which triggers 50-50 on Polymarket but likely No on Kalshi.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Comprehensive method and timing markets. Resolves KO/TKO, submission, distance, and round thresholds (0.5, 1.5, 2.5) to Yes/No with explicit 50-50 rules for exact thresholds and no-contest/postponement beyond March 28. Key Quote: If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 28, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50.
- Kalshi: Binary winner determination only. Resolves to Yes if either Sosa or Lacerda wins; no method or timing specification provided. Key Quote: If Hecher Sosa wins the Lacerda vs Sosa professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Mar 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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