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UFC Fight Night: Louie Sutherland vs. José Montanha (Heavyweight, Prelims)
polymarket
kalshi

UFC Fight Night: Louie Sutherland vs. José Montanha (Heavyweight, Prelims)

Volume:
$1,002,200

Jose Montanha Da Silva

 - Kalshi

Jose Montanha Da Silva - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 8, 2026

Closed: Aug 8, 6:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Jose Montanha Da Silva

View
100%
62%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$466,089
N/A
N/A
$352,603
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
100%
59%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Louie Sutherland

View
0%
64%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$438,566
N/A
N/A
$392,907
Settled
No
polymarket

Louie Sutherland vs. José Montanha

View
0%
64%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$95,849
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
32%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,107
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$305
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Montanha to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$218
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
33%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Sutherland to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC Fight Night bout between Louie Sutherland and José Montanha will end in submission. The aggregated consensus probability for a submission win stands at 99.5% across Polymarket and Kalshi, with resolution based on official information from the UFC. The outcome will be determined at the fight scheduled for August 8, 2026, so keep an eye on that date for resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets across platforms share the same resolution criteria based on official UFC results, with consistent handling of draws, no contests, cancellations, and exact threshold cases.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the UFC

Core resolution logic:

  • The fight result is determined by the official UFC declaration
  • Win conditions include decision, KO/TKO, submission, or draw
  • No contest, cancellation, or postponement beyond August 22, 2026, resolves most markets to 50-50
  • Exact round thresholds ending at the limit resolve as 50-50 for over/under markets

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • No Contest / Cancellation: All markets resolve to 50-50 unless specifically stated otherwise
  • Exact Threshold: If a fight ends exactly on the threshold for over/under round markets, it resolves to 50-50
  • Disqualification: Markets resolve as 'No' for KO/TKO or submission markets, and follow general rules for win markets
Timing: Resolution occurs after the official UFC announcement of the fight result, no later than August 22, 2026Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Louie Sutherland" if Louie Sutherland is officially declared the winner of the fight against José Montanha at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld, scheduled for August 8, 2026. It will resolve to "José Montanha" if José Montanha is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 22, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the winner of the Sutherland vs Montanha Da Silva professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 8, 2026. If postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled fight within two weeks. A tie or no contest resolves to 50/50, and cancellation or rescheduling beyond two weeks leads to a fair price resolution.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Sutherland vs. Montanha fight market aggregates real-time data from multiple venues, showing how traders price the likelihood of different outcomes. It tracks volume of $1,002,200 and 24-hour volume of $662,132, letting you see where consensus stands across Polymarket and Kalshi. This view helps you spot shifts in sentiment as fight day approaches.

Key signals that could shift this market include last-minute fighter injuries, changes to training camp news, or updates from pre-fight media events. Performance metrics revealed in the days leading up to the bout, as well as any betting volume spikes on either Polymarket or Kalshi, may also cause price swings. Traders often watch these cues closely as they can dramatically alter perceived odds before the fight begins.