TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
UFC Fight Night: Lawrence Lui vs. Hector Santiago (Bantamweight, Prelims)
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win Lawrence Lui vs. Hector Santiago?

Volume:
$823,127

Hector de Sousa Santiago

 - Kalshi

Hector de Sousa Santiago - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 29, 2026

Closed: Aug 29, 4:14 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Hector de Sousa Santiago

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$339,917
N/A
N/A
$238,464
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,793
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Santiago to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
84%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,227
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
55%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Lawrence Lui

View
0%
72%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$313,742
N/A
N/A
$255,350
Settled
No
polymarket

Lawrence Lui vs. Hector Santiago

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$157,197
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
27%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,036
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
43%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,936
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
50%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,886
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Lui to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$381
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks who will win the UFC Fight Night bout between Lawrence Lui and Hector Santiago in the Bantamweight division. The aggregated consensus probability for Hector de Sousa Santiago wins is 99.0%, drawn from Polymarket and Kalshi, with resolution based on official information from the UFC. Watch for the scheduled fight date on August 29, 2026, as it will determine the outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets across Polymarket and Kalshi resolve based on the same official UFC result, with consistent handling of draws, no contests, cancellations, and postponements.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the UFC

Core resolution logic:

  • The fight result is determined by the UFC's official declaration
  • Markets resolve based on win condition, method of victory, and round thresholds as specified
  • Draws, no contests, cancellations, and postponements beyond September 12, 2026 resolve as specified (often 50-50)

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact Threshold: If a round-based market ends exactly at the threshold, it resolves 50-50
  • Disqualification: Markets resolving to 'No' or '50-50' if the fight ends in disqualification
Timing: Resolution occurs after the official UFC declaration of the fight result, no later than September 12, 2026Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Lawrence Lui" if Lawrence Lui is officially declared the winner of the fight against Hector Santiago at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song, scheduled for August 29, 2026. It will resolve to "Hector Santiago" if Hector Santiago is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 12, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

If Lawrence Lui wins the Lui vs de Sousa Santiago professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Hector de Sousa Santiago wins the Lui vs de Sousa Santiago professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Lawrence Lui vs Santiago fight market aggregates data from multiple platforms, showing how traders price the likelihood of different outcomes. It tracks total volume of $823,127 and recent 24-hour volume of $791,628, letting you see consensus views and divergence across venues. This real-time view helps you spot shifts in sentiment as fight night approaches.