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UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)

Volume:
$4,772,080

Manel Kape

 - Kalshi

Manel Kape - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 25, 2026

Closed: Jun 20, 10:24 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Manel Kape

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,560,746
N/A
N/A
$1,140,719
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Kape to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,268
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$823
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$370
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$275
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$14
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Kyoji Horiguchi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,276,444
N/A
N/A
$1,963,961
Settled
No
polymarket

Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$904,698
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 4.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,798
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,296
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 3.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$188
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$110
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Horiguchi to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$51
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 13

Intro

This market tracks the expected fight duration of the UFC Fight Night matchup between Kyoji Horiguchi and Manel Kape, scheduled for June 20, 2026. The aggregated consensus across Polymarket and Kalshi shows 100.0% probability for the over/under 2.5 rounds outcome, with a secondary outcome at 0.1% probability. Resolution will be determined by official UFC records at ufc.com/events. Watch for the fight result on June 20, 2026, which will settle the round-count markets.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket defines a comprehensive, multi-market suite with explicit edge-case handling (50-50 for no-contest, cancellation, postponement beyond July 4). Kalshi provides a single, minimally specified binary market with no documented handling of draws, no-contests, or cancellations, creating ambiguity in non-standard outcomes.Hero tip: Use Polymarket as the primary resolution reference for this event. Kalshi's market lacks specificity on edge cases; assume standard MMA convention applies (draw = no winner), but verify with Kalshi before settlement if the fight does not produce a decisive winner.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Nine distinct markets covering winner, KO/TKO (by fighter), submission, round duration (O/U 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5), and distance completion. All markets explicitly resolve 50-50 for no-contest, cancellation, or postponement beyond July 4, 2026. Winner market resolves 50-50 for draw or technical draw. Key quote: 'If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 4, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50.'
  • Kalshi: Single binary market: 'If Manel Kape wins... Yes. If Kyoji Horiguchi wins... Yes.' No specification for draws, no-contests, cancellations, or postponements. Silent on all edge cases and non-standard outcomes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Kyoji Horiguchi" if Kyoji Horiguchi is officially declared the winner of the fight against Manel Kape at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi, scheduled for June 20, 2026. It will resolve to "Manel Kape" if Manel Kape is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 4, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

Resolution depends on the fight outcome: if the bout is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled fight concludes within two weeks. If the fight results in a tie or no contest, both outcomes resolve to 50/50. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled beyond two weeks, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with established rules.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like these operate on crowd-sourced pricing rather than traditional sportsbook models. Instead of a bookmaker setting fixed lines, traders buy and sell shares reflecting their belief in each outcome, creating dynamic odds that shift with new information. This market-driven approach often surfaces different probabilities than conventional sportsbooks, especially when one community has deeper conviction or access to specialized fighter analysis. Comparing this market's prices to your preferred sportsbook can reveal value opportunities or consensus shifts in how professionals view the matchup.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and regulatory frameworks that influence how prices evolve. Polymarket and Kalshi may weight fighter news, injury reports, or betting patterns differently based on their user base's expertise and timing of information flow. Liquidity depth also varies—lower volume on one platform can amplify price swings from individual trades. These gaps typically narrow closer to the event as arbitrageurs exploit mispricings, but they create short-term opportunities for informed traders monitoring both venues.