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UFC Fight Night: Kyle Prepolec vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)
polymarket
kalshi

UFC Fight Night: Kyle Prepolec vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)

Volume:
$1,276,786

Mateusz Rebecki

 - Kalshi

Mateusz Rebecki - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 1, 2026

Closed: Aug 1, 11:19 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Mateusz Rebecki

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$779,256
N/A
N/A
$652,052
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Rebecki to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,757
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$949
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Kyle Prepolec

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$372,510
N/A
N/A
$302,783
Settled
No
polymarket

Kyle Prepolec vs. Mateusz Rebecki

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$109,667
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,834
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,053
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,338
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Prepolec to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$203
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$201
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the Kyle Prepolec vs. Mateusz Rebecki lightweight prelims fight will last more than half a round. The aggregated consensus probability for the leading outcome, O/U 0.5 Rounds, is 90.0%, drawn from Polymarket and Kalshi, with resolution based on official information from the UFC. Watch for the scheduled fight date on August 1, 2026, as it will determine the outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets resolve using identical criteria based on official UFC declarations for the fight scheduled August 1, 2026, with consistent handling of draws, No Contests, cancellations, and method-of-victory conditions.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the UFC

Core resolution logic:

  • Winner markets resolve to the officially declared winner; draws and No Contests resolve as 50-50
  • Method-of-victory markets (KO/TKO, submission) resolve Yes only if that specific method occurs; otherwise No
  • Round duration markets (O/U X.5 Rounds) resolve based on whether fight duration crosses the specified threshold; exact thresholds resolve as 50-50
  • Any cancellation, postponement beyond August 15, 2026, or failure to score results in 50-50 for all markets

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact Threshold: If a round duration ends exactly at the threshold (e.g., 2:30 of Round 1 for O/U 0.5), the market resolves 50-50
  • Disqualification: Fights ending by disqualification resolve as No for method-of-victory markets and 50-50 for winner markets
Timing: Resolution occurs after the official UFC declaration of fight results, no later than August 15, 2026Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Kyle Prepolec" if Kyle Prepolec is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mateusz Rebecki at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez, scheduled for August 1, 2026. It will resolve to "Mateusz Rebecki" if Mateusz Rebecki is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 15, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

If Mateusz Rebecki wins the Rebecki vs Prepolec professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kyle Prepolec wins the Rebecki vs Prepolec professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Prepolec vs Rebecki fight outcome market aggregates predictions across platforms, showing real-time probabilities and volume for each possible result. It tracks how user sentiment shifts on different venues, offering a consensus view of who might win. This centralized view lets participants compare odds and liquidity instantly, helping them spot trends before the bout. With data drawn from multiple prediction markets, the dashboard reflects collective wisdom around this market and overall engagement levels through metrics like volume of $1,276,786 and 24-hour volume of $985,565.

In the weeks before resolution, key signals such as fight-week announcements, injury updates, or training performance leaks could shift this market. Media coverage, betting trends on traditional platforms, and social sentiment may also influence trader behavior. If either fighter gains unexpected momentum or faces setbacks, odds could swing dramatically. Additionally, changes in platform volume or large trades can create short-term volatility, keeping the market dynamic until the final bell.