TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: Kris Moutinho vs. Cristian Quiñonez (Bantamweight, Prelims)
Volume:
$990,113
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a bantamweight preliminary fight between Kris Moutinho and Cristian Quiñonez scheduled for UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh on February 28, 2026. Markets span fighter winner, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), fight duration thresholds, and distance completion.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi offers only winner-based resolution (both outcomes resolve Yes), while Polymarket provides method-of-victory and duration markets with distinct Yes/No outcomes. The markets are complementary rather than contradictory, but traders face different resolution paths on the same underlying fight.Hero Tip:
Kalshi markets function as a simple moneyline (either fighter winning triggers Yes). Polymarket markets are tactical overlays on fight mechanics. Cross-platform arbitrage is possible if one platform misprice method likelihood relative to winner probability. Monitor UFC official sources for fight cancellation or postponement beyond March 14, 2026, which triggers 50-50 resolution on all Polymarket markets and voids Kalshi's Yes outcomes.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Winner-only resolution. Both "Moutinho wins" and "Quinonez wins" resolve to Yes. No method-of-victory or duration markets. Resolution source: official UFC information.
- Polymarket: Nine granular markets covering method (KO/TKO, submission, decision), duration (O/U 0.5/1.5/2.5 rounds), and distance completion. Each has independent Yes/No or Over/Under logic. Cancellation/postponement beyond March 14, 2026 triggers 50-50 on all markets. Resolution source: official UFC information.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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