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24H VOL:

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OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

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30,383

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Kalshi:

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UFC Fight Night: Kris Moutinho vs. Cristian Quiñonez (Bantamweight, Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

UFC Fight Night: Kris Moutinho vs. Cristian Quiñonez (Bantamweight, Prelims)

Volume:
$990,113

Christian Quinonez

 - Kalshi

Christian Quinonez - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 2, 2026

Closed: Feb 28, 11:20 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Christian Quinonez

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$254,709
N/A
N/A
$157,557
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,088
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$681
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$402
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$328
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Kris Moutinho

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$425,631
N/A
N/A
$363,506
Settled
No
polymarket

Moutinho vs. Quiñonez

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$303,489
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Quiñonez to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,006
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Moutinho to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,383
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$258
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$138
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This event group covers a bantamweight preliminary fight between Kris Moutinho and Cristian Quiñonez scheduled for UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh on February 28, 2026. Markets span fighter winner, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), fight duration thresholds, and distance completion.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi offers only winner-based resolution (both outcomes resolve Yes), while Polymarket provides method-of-victory and duration markets with distinct Yes/No outcomes. The markets are complementary rather than contradictory, but traders face different resolution paths on the same underlying fight.Hero tip: Kalshi markets function as a simple moneyline (either fighter winning triggers Yes). Polymarket markets are tactical overlays on fight mechanics. Cross-platform arbitrage is possible if one platform misprice method likelihood relative to winner probability. Monitor UFC official sources for fight cancellation or postponement beyond March 14, 2026, which triggers 50-50 resolution on all Polymarket markets and voids Kalshi's Yes outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Winner-only resolution. Both "Moutinho wins" and "Quinonez wins" resolve to Yes. No method-of-victory or duration markets. Resolution source: official UFC information.
  • Polymarket: Nine granular markets covering method (KO/TKO, submission, decision), duration (O/U 0.5/1.5/2.5 rounds), and distance completion. Each has independent Yes/No or Over/Under logic. Cancellation/postponement beyond March 14, 2026 triggers 50-50 on all markets. Resolution source: official UFC information.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.