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$134.1b

24H VOL:

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2,388,728,490

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405,232

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30,526

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

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VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Aoriqileng (Bantamweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win Kai Asakura vs. Aoriqileng?

Volume:
$730,764

Kai Asakura

 - Kalshi

Kai Asakura - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 29, 2026

Closed: Aug 29, 7:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Kai Asakura

View
100%
20%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$326,143
N/A
N/A
$286,971
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Kai Asakura vs. Aoriqileng

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$121,849
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15,551
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Asakura to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
41%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,121
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
29%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$461
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Qileng Aori

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$232,117
N/A
N/A
$204,499
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,912
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,421
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
34%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,686
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Aoriqileng to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$433
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
62%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$71
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC Fight Night bout between Kai Asakura and Aoriqileng, scheduled for August 29, 2026, will last over or under 1.5 rounds. The current aggregated consensus probability for the leading outcome, O/U 1.5 Rounds, stands at 10.0% across Polymarket and Kalshi. The market resolution is determined by the official UFC announcement. The key catalyst to watch will be the end of the betting period on August 30, 2026, which will signal the finalization of all bets ahead of the event.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets across Polymarket and Kalshi share identical resolution criteria tied to official UFC results, with consistent handling of draws, no contests, cancellations, and exact-time thresholds.Primary resolution logic: Official UFC announcement

Core resolution logic:

  • Winner markets resolve to the officially declared winner; draws or no contests result in 50-50 where applicable
  • Method-of-victory markets (KO/TKO, submission) resolve only if the fight ends by that specific method; otherwise 'No'
  • Over/Under round markets resolve based on whether the fight crosses the specified round threshold, with exact thresholds resulting in 50-50
  • Any cancellation, postponement beyond September 12, 2026, or fight not scored leads to 50-50 resolution for all affected markets

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact Threshold: If a fight ends exactly at the threshold time for over/under round markets, it resolves as 50-50
  • No Contest: Any declaration of No Contest, technical draw, or fight not scored results in 50-50 for all markets unless explicitly stated otherwise
  • Disqualification: Fights ending in disqualification resolve as 'No' for method-of-victory markets and do not count as a win for either fighter
Timing: Resolution occurs immediately after the official UFC announcement of the fight result, typically within 24 hours of the event conclusionOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Kai Asakura" if Kai Asakura is officially declared the winner of the fight against Aoriqileng at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song, scheduled for August 29, 2026. It will resolve to "Aoriqileng" if Aoriqileng is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 12, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

If Qileng Aori wins the Aori vs Asakura professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kai Asakura wins the Aori vs Asakura professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Asakura vs Aoriqileng fight market aggregates activity across multiple venues, showing how traders price the likelihood of various outcomes. It displays total volume of $730,764 and 24-hour volume of $650,782, letting users compare sentiment and spot trends as the event approaches. This unified view helps participants see where consensus is forming, and how expectations shift ahead of fight night.