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UFC Fight Night: Jingnan Xiong vs. Julia Polastri (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)
polymarket
kalshi

UFC Fight Night: Jingnan Xiong vs. Julia Polastri (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)

Volume:
$541,092

Julia Polastri

 - Kalshi

Julia Polastri - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 29, 2026

Closed: Aug 29, 3:54 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Julia Polastri

View
100%
31%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$195,448
N/A
N/A
$160,629
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$910
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Polastri to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
95%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$163
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
79%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$97
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Xiong Jing Nan

View
0%
31%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$232,428
N/A
N/A
$212,099
Settled
No
polymarket

Jingnan Xiong vs. Julia Polastri

View
0%
30%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$103,424
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,566
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
74%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,378
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,521
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Xiong to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$139
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
94%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC Fight Night bout between Jingnan Xiong and Julia Polastri will end in a win by KO or TKO. The aggregated consensus probability for this outcome stands at 100.0%, drawing data from Polymarket and Kalshi, with resolution based on official UFC announcements and fight records. The key date to monitor is August 29, 2026, which is the scheduled fight date.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets across Polymarket and Kalshi resolve based on the same official UFC results, with consistent handling of draws, cancellations, and other edge cases.Primary resolution logic: Official UFC announcements and fight records

Core resolution logic:

  • Winner markets resolve to the officially declared winner
  • Method markets (KO/TKO, Submission) resolve based on how the fight ends
  • Round markets resolve based on whether the fight lasts beyond specified thresholds
  • Cancellations, postponements beyond September 12, 2026, No Contests, or unresolved bouts resolve as 50-50 where applicable

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Draw or Technical Draw: Resolves as 50-50 for winner markets; resolves as 'Yes' for 'Fight to Go the Distance' if all scheduled rounds are completed
  • No Contest or Disqualification: Resolves as 50-50 for all markets unless explicitly stated otherwise
  • Exact Threshold for Round Markets: Resolves as 50-50 if the fight ends exactly at the threshold time
Timing: Resolution occurs after the official UFC announcement of the fight result, no later than September 12, 2026Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Jingnan Xiong" if Jingnan Xiong is officially declared the winner of the fight against Julia Polastri at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song, scheduled for August 29, 2026. It will resolve to "Julia Polastri" if Julia Polastri is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 12, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the winner of the Jing Nan vs Polastri professional MMA fight originally scheduled for August 29, 2026. If the fight is postponed or delayed, the market remains open until the rescheduled fight concludes, provided it happens within two weeks of the original date. In the event of a tie or no contest, the market resolves as 50/50 for both participants. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to more than two weeks after the original date, the market resolves at a fair price as determined by the rules. These markets are not endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC, and any references to UFC are purely descriptive.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Xiong vs Polastri fight market aggregates real-time data from multiple platforms, showing how traders price the chances of different outcomes in this upcoming UFC bout. It displays current probabilities, volume of $541,092, and 24-hour volume of $513,197, allowing users to see consensus views and compare sentiment across venues. This centralized view helps fans and traders monitor shifts in expectations as the fight approaches, reflecting new information like fighter performance, injuries, or changes in strategy.

Key signals that could shift probabilities in this market include pre-fight media appearances, training updates or injuries, changes in betting volumes on either platform, and analyst predictions from reputable MMA outlets. Significant momentum swings—positive or negative—for either fighter in the days leading up to the event often drive rapid market adjustments, reflecting evolving perceptions of fight dynamics and potential outcomes.