TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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UFC Fight Night: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Seokhyeon Ko (Welterweight, Prelims)
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Seokhyeon Ko fight?

Volume:
$3,047,905

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

 - Kalshi

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 19, 2026

Closed: Jul 18, 7:40 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,141,966
N/A
N/A
$668,668
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Seokhyeon Ko

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$514,178
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7,958
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,665
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Seok Hyun Ko

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,379,193
N/A
N/A
$943,532
Settled
No
polymarket

Ko to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,254
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$293
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Lebosnoyani to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$240
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$119
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks the duration of a UFC welterweight preliminary bout between Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani and Seokhyeon Ko, aggregating predictions from Polymarket and Kalshi. The consensus probability for the Over/Under 2.5 Rounds outcome stands at 100.0%, reflecting near-unanimous market expectation across platforms. Resolution will be determined by official UFC records at ufc.com/events following the fight scheduled for July 18, 2026. Watch the actual fight duration on fight night to see whether the bout concludes before or after the two-and-a-half-round threshold.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket defines comprehensive, multi-market resolution logic with explicit edge-case handling (draws, no-contests, postponements resolve 50-50). Kalshi provides only a binary winner market with no stated resolution for draws, cancellations, or postponements, creating ambiguity and potential settlement disputes.Hero tip: Polymarket offers superior clarity and granularity. Traders can hedge across method-specific and distance markets with predictable 50-50 fallbacks. Kalshi's silence on contingencies introduces settlement risk; verify with Kalshi support whether draws or cancellations trigger refunds or discretionary resolution before committing capital.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Nine distinct markets with unified edge-case logic. Winner market resolves to fighter name, or 50-50 for draw/technical draw/no-contest/postponement beyond Aug 1, 2026. Distance, method (KO/TKO/submission), and round-threshold markets all follow the same 50-50 fallback for cancellations and postponements. Resolution source: official UFC information. Key Quote: 'If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 1, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50.'
  • Kalshi: Single binary winner market with incomplete resolution logic. Resolves Yes if either fighter wins, but provides no guidance on draws, no-contests, cancellations, or postponements. Resolution source not explicitly stated. Key Quote: 'If Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins the Lebosnoyani vs Ko professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Jul 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' (No mention of contingencies.)
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani" if Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani is officially declared the winner of the fight against Seokhyeon Ko at UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman, scheduled for July 18, 2026. It will resolve to "Seokhyeon Ko" if Seokhyeon Ko is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 1, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

Resolution depends on the official fight outcome. If the fight is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled bout concludes within two weeks. Ties or no-contests resolve at 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled beyond two weeks, the market resolves to a fair price per standard rules.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market prices for the Lebosnoyani vs. Ko welterweight fight across Polymarket and Kalshi, allowing you to monitor real-time trader sentiment on multiple outcomes simultaneously. You can track consensus views on who wins, whether the bout goes the distance, and other fight-specific props. The combined volume across both venues reflects active interest in this preliminary matchup, giving you a cross-platform snapshot of how the market is pricing each scenario as the event approaches.

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price fights differently because they operate on distinct mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and manage risk, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. Prediction market odds often reflect sharper, crowd-sourced analysis and can move faster in response to fighter news, injuries, or public sentiment. However, sportsbooks may incorporate additional proprietary data and market-making strategies. Comparing both can reveal where consensus diverges and highlight potential value opportunities.

Fighter injuries, training camp updates, or withdrawal announcements could trigger sharp repricing. Weigh-in results, recent fight footage analysis, and public betting patterns also influence trader positioning. News about either fighter's recent performance, coaching changes, or personal circumstances may shift perceived win probability. Social media momentum and expert commentary can amplify sentiment swings. As the event date approaches, late-breaking developments—such as rule changes or venue updates—may cause final adjustments before the market locks at fight time.