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404,028

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2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims)
polymarket
kalshi

UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims)

Volume:
$667,314

Kaan Ofli

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 27, 2026

Closed: Jun 27, 10:49 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Kaan Ofli

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$219,827
N/A
N/A
$180,817
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ofli to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$162
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Javier Reyes

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$226,890
N/A
N/A
$207,543
Settled
No
polymarket

Reyes to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$221
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$208,059
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,228
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,349
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$457
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 11

Description

This event group covers a UFC Fight Night featherweight preliminary bout between Javier Reyes and Kaan Ofli scheduled for June 27, 2026, as part of the UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres card. Markets span fighter moneyline, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), fight distance (over/under round thresholds), and outcome determination.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi provides minimal resolution detail compared to Polymarket's comprehensive specifications. Kalshi does not explicitly address draws, disqualifications, technical decisions, no-contests, or cancellations, creating potential ambiguity in edge cases.Hero tip: Treat Polymarket as the primary resolution authority for this fight group. All seven Polymarket markets (Reyes KO/TKO, Ofli KO/TKO, distance, submission, moneyline, and round thresholds) contain explicit edge-case logic. Kalshi's binary outcome market will likely align with Polymarket's moneyline for a decisive winner, but confirm Kalshi's handling of 50-50 scenarios (draw, no-contest, cancellation) before the event.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Seven distinct markets with granular resolution criteria. All markets explicitly resolve to 50-50 if bout is ruled no-contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 11, 2026. Method-of-victory markets (KO/TKO, submission) resolve No for draws or disqualifications. Distance markets (O/U 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds) resolve 50-50 if fight ends exactly at threshold or is not scored/canceled. Moneyline resolves to fighter name if declared official winner, or 50-50 for draw/technical draw/no-contest/cancellation. Key quote: 'If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 11, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50.'
  • Kalshi: Single binary market: resolves Yes if either Kaan Ofli or Javier Reyes wins the bout originally scheduled for June 27, 2026. No explicit resolution logic for draws, disqualifications, technical decisions, no-contests, or cancellations. Key quote: 'If Kaan Ofli wins the Ofli vs Reyes professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Javier Reyes wins the Ofli vs Reyes professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Javier Reyes" if Javier Reyes is officially declared the winner of the fight against Kaan Ofli at UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres, scheduled for June 27, 2026. It will resolve to "Kaan Ofli" if Kaan Ofli is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 11, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

Resolution depends on the official fight outcome. If the bout is postponed or delayed, markets remain open and close after the rescheduled fight concludes within two weeks. Ties and no-contests resolve both fighter markets to 50/50. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled beyond two weeks, markets resolve to a fair price per official rules.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than traditional sportsbook odds-setting. Instead of a bookmaker setting lines, traders themselves determine prices through supply and demand, often reflecting crowd sentiment and information asymmetries. This can result in sharper or slower-moving odds compared to regulated sportsbooks, depending on liquidity and participant sophistication. For this market, comparing prediction prices to major sportsbook lines reveals whether the crowd is pricing the matchup differently than professional oddsmakers, potentially signaling value or consensus shifts.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, all of which influence price discovery. Polymarket uses an automated market maker model, while Kalshi operates an order-book system, creating distinct mechanics for how bids and asks interact. Additionally, variations in user base geography, risk appetite, and information access can cause one platform to price the fight outcome ahead of or differently from the other. These gaps typically narrow as the event date approaches and arbitrageurs exploit mispricings.

Fighter injuries, weight-cut complications, or withdrawal announcements could trigger sharp repricing. Social media activity, training camp reports, or analyst commentary may shift trader conviction gradually. Sportsbook line movements often precede or follow prediction market shifts, so monitoring external betting venues provides early warning of sentiment changes. Weigh-in results and official fight confirmations typically generate final volatility spikes. Additionally, if either fighter faces unexpected circumstances in the days before the bout, this market could experience rapid repricing as new information reaches traders.