TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 18, 10:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether the UFC middleweight bout between Jared Cannonier and Christian Leroy Duncan will extend beyond 1.5 rounds. The aggregated consensus across Kalshi and Polymarket shows 99.0% probability for the over/under outcome, as resolved by official UFC records. The fight is scheduled for July 18, 2026, at UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman, with market resolution occurring the day after the event concludes on July 19, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Jared Cannonier" if Jared Cannonier is officially declared the winner of the fight against Christian Leroy Duncan at UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman, scheduled for July 18, 2026. It will resolve to "Christian Leroy Duncan" if Christian Leroy Duncan is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 1, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution depends on the official fight outcome. If the fight is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled bout concludes within two weeks. Ties or no-contests resolve at 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled beyond two weeks, the market resolves to a fair price per standard rules.
Prediction markets like those tracked here operate on peer-to-peer pricing rather than sportsbook margins, often reflecting sharper consensus when volume is active. Sportsbooks build in juice and manage liability across many bettors; prediction markets instead aggregate trader conviction directly. For this fight, comparing this market's odds to traditional sportsbook lines can reveal where public perception diverges from professional oddsmakers. Prediction markets tend to move faster on new information and may price niche outcomes that sportsbooks avoid, making them useful for sophisticated fight analysis.
Fighter injury reports, training camp updates, and official weigh-in results are primary catalysts that shift odds before fight night. News of late replacements, weight-cut complications, or coaching changes can trigger sharp repricing. As the event date approaches, social media sentiment, expert commentary, and betting action from known sharp bettors often accelerate moves. On fight day itself, official fighter announcements, walkout order changes, or last-minute venue adjustments can create final volatility. Real-time fight footage during the bout will drive the most dramatic swings as traders react to visible performance and momentum shifts.