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UFC Fight Night: Jan Blachowicz vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

UFC Fight Night: Jan Blachowicz vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)

Volume:
$2,767,062

Navajo Stirling

 - Kalshi

Navajo Stirling - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 1, 2026

Closed: Aug 1, 3:09 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Navajo Stirling

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$913,565
N/A
N/A
$752,068
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Stirling to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,484
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$793
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
20¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Jan Blachowicz

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,255,193
N/A
N/A
$1,113,890
Settled
No
polymarket

Jan Blachowicz vs. Navajo Stirling

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$540,626
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$39,673
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,060
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Blachowicz to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,112
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$318
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$237
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC Fight Night bout between Jan Blachowicz and Navajo Stirling will last over or under 1.5 rounds. The aggregated consensus probability for the leading outcome, O/U 1.5 Rounds, is 100.0%, based on data from Polymarket and Kalshi, with resolution provided by official information from the UFC. Watch for the scheduled fight date on August 1, 2026, as it will determine the final outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets across Polymarket and Kalshi resolve based on the same official UFC result with consistent handling of draws, cancellations, and method-specific conditions.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the UFC

Core resolution logic:

  • Winner markets resolve to the officially declared winner; draws, No Contests, cancellations, or postponements beyond August 15, 2026 resolve as 50-50
  • Method-of-victory markets (KO/TKO, submission) resolve Yes only if the fight ends by that specific method; otherwise No; draws, disqualifications, No Contests resolve No or 50-50 where applicable
  • Round duration markets (O/U) resolve Over if the fight lasts beyond the specified round threshold; Under if it ends before; exact thresholds resolve 50-50; cancellations or postponements resolve 50-50

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Draw or Technical Draw: Resolved as 50-50 for winner markets; Yes for 'Fight to Go the Distance'; No for KO/TKO and submission markets
  • No Contest or Cancellation: Resolved as 50-50 for all markets unless explicitly stated otherwise
  • Disqualification: Resolved as No for KO/TKO and submission markets; winner market resolves based on the other fighter being declared winner unless ruled a No Contest
Timing: Resolution occurs after the official UFC declaration of the fight result, no later than August 15, 2026 for any postponed or canceled eventsOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Jan Blachowicz" if Jan Blachowicz is officially declared the winner of the fight against Navajo Stirling at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez, scheduled for August 1, 2026. It will resolve to "Navajo Stirling" if Navajo Stirling is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 15, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the winner of the Blachowicz vs Stirling professional MMA fight originally scheduled for August 1, 2026. If the fight is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled fight concludes, provided it happens within two weeks of the original date. If the fight ends in a tie or is declared a no contest, both markets resolve at 50/50. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to more than two weeks after the original date, the market resolves at a fair price as determined by the rules. These conditions apply equally to both fighters' markets and are designed to handle various scenarios that may affect the fight's timing or official result.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Blachowicz vs. Stirling fight market aggregates real-time data from multiple venues, showing how traders price the chances of different outcomes. It displays current probabilities, volume of $2,767,062, and 24-hour volume of $2,142,512, letting you see consensus views across Polymarket and Kalshi. This gives a live snapshot of market sentiment as the event approaches.

Key signals that could shift this market include pre-fight media coverage, injury updates, training performance leaks, and changes in fighter rankings. Any announcement affecting either fighter’s readiness or perceived advantage may cause rapid price swings. Additionally, overall betting volume spikes right before the event can also influence probabilities on both Polymarket and Kalshi.