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406,019

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2,689

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UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Urbina vs. Vlasto Cepo (Middleweight, Prelims)
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win Gilbert Urbina vs. Vlasto Cepo?

Volume:
$2,459,626

Gilbert Urbina

 - Kalshi

Gilbert Urbina - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 1, 2026

Closed: Aug 1, 1:49 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Gilbert Urbina

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$748,378
N/A
N/A
$655,666
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Gilbert Urbina vs. Vlasto Cepo

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$406,537
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Urbina to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$109
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
16¢
N/A
$32
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Vlasto Cepo

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,275,025
N/A
N/A
$1,194,268
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,253
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,672
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,573
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Cepo to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,016
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether Vlasto Cepo will win the UFC Fight Night bout against Gilbert Urbina by KO or TKO. The aggregated consensus probability for Vlasto Cepo winning by KO or TKO is 16.0%, drawn from Polymarket and Kalshi, with resolution based on official UFC announcements and fight records. Similarly, the probability for a submission victory stands at 16.0%. Watch for the official fight result on August 1, 2026, which will determine the market outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets across Polymarket and Kalshi resolve based on official UFC declarations with consistent treatment of win conditions, draw/no contest scenarios, and threshold-based round outcomesPrimary resolution logic: Official UFC announcements and fight records

Core resolution logic:

  • Winner markets resolve to declared winner; draw/No Contest/cancellation resolves as specified (50-50 or No)
  • Method markets (KO/TKO, Submission) resolve based on official declared method of victory
  • Round duration markets resolve based on whether fight crossed specified round/time thresholds
  • All markets specify exact resolution conditions for draws, No Contests, cancellations, and threshold edge cases

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact Threshold Crossings: Markets with round thresholds (e.g., O/U 0.5 Rounds) resolve as 50-50 if fight ends exactly at threshold time
  • No Contest/Cancellation: All markets specify 50-50 or No resolution for No Contest, cancellation, or postponement beyond August 15, 2026
  • Draw Scenarios: Judge's scorecard draws resolve differently per market (e.g., 'Yes' for Go the Distance, 'No' for KO/TKO markets)
Timing: Resolution occurs after official UFC declaration of fight result, typically within 24-48 hours of fight conclusionOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Gilbert Urbina" if Gilbert Urbina is officially declared the winner of the fight against Vlasto Cepo at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez, scheduled for August 1, 2026. It will resolve to "Vlasto Cepo" if Vlasto Cepo is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 15, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

If Vlasto Cepo wins the Cepo vs Urbina professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Gilbert Urbina wins the Cepo vs Urbina professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Urbina vs. Cepo fight outcome market aggregates real-time data from multiple venues, showing how traders price the chances of different results. It displays current probabilities, total volume of $2,459,626, and 24-hour volume of $2,399,971. This gives you a live snapshot of market sentiment toward the fight, letting you compare how Polymarket and Kalshi users evaluate the contenders.

In the weeks before resolution, this market can shift based on several key signals: pre-fight media appearances, training updates or injuries, changes in betting volumes on either fighter, and any last-minute strategic announcements from the camps. Each piece of news that alters the perceived likelihood of a particular outcome can cause rapid repricing, especially as the event draws nearer and trader sentiment evolves.