TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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UFC Fight Night: Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic (Welterweight, Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

UFC Fight Night: Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic (Welterweight, Prelims)

Volume:
$2,143,025

Uros Medic

 - Kalshi

Uros Medic - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Feb 22, 2026

Will Uros Medic win the Neal vs Medic professional MMA fight scheduled for Feb 21, 2026?

100%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 100% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: N/A Illiquid market
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Uros Medic

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$672,780
0%
0%
$579,176
N/A
polymarket

Medic to win by KO/TKO?

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,233
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$124
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
kalshi

Geoffrey Neal

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$743,887
0%
0%
$716,259
N/A
polymarket

Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$694,275
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,538
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,422
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Neal to win by KO/TKO?

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,755
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,706
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,171
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,133
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
Total markets: 11

Description

This event group covers multiple prediction markets for the UFC Fight Night preliminary welterweight bout between Geoff Neal and Uros Medic, scheduled for February 21, 2026. Markets span winner determination, method of victory (KO/TKO vs submission), fight duration thresholds, and distance completion across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's primary market contains a logical tautology (both fighters winning = Yes), rendering it unresolvable and contradicting standard MMA settlement logic. Polymarket and Kalshi's secondary definitions align, but Kalshi's primary market creates data integrity failure.Hero tip: Do not trade Kalshi's first market as written. Escalate to Kalshi support for clarification. All other markets (Polymarket + Kalshi secondary) should resolve consistently using official UFC records: winner, method (KO/TKO/submission/decision), and exact round/time for duration thresholds. Confirm fight is not canceled or postponed beyond March 7, 2026 before settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi (Market 1 - PRIMARY): Tautological definition: 'If Geoffrey Neal wins...Yes. If Uros Medic wins...Yes.' Both outcomes map to Yes, violating binary resolution logic. This market is logically unresolvable as stated.
  • Polymarket + Kalshi (Secondary): Unified approach: Winner resolves to named fighter or 50-50 (draw/no-contest/postponement beyond March 7). Method markets (KO/TKO, submission) resolve Yes/No based on finish type, or 50-50 for non-scored bouts. Duration thresholds (O/U 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds) resolve Over/Under based on exact round/time, or 50-50 if exact threshold or non-scored. Distance market resolves Yes if full rounds completed with judges' decision, No otherwise, or 50-50 if non-scored.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.