TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a UFC Fight Night flyweight bout between Felipe Bunes and Édgar Cháirez scheduled for February 28, 2026, at UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh. Markets span fight winner, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), fight duration (rounds), and distance outcomes across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms apply identical resolution logic: official UFC determination of winner and method, consistent round-duration thresholds (2:30 per round), and uniform treatment of draws, technical decisions, no contests, and postponements as 50-50 outcomes.
Primary resolution logic:
Official UFC information from ufc.com and UFC official recordsCore resolution logic:
- Fight Winner: Resolves to the fighter officially declared winner by UFC (Bunes or Cháirez); draw or technical draw resolves 50-50
- Method of Victory - KO/TKO: Resolves Yes if fight ends by knockout, technical knockout, referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage; No if decision, submission, or disqualification; 50-50 if no contest or postponed beyond March 14, 2026
- Method of Victory - Submission: Resolves Yes if fight ends by tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to submission hold); No if decision, KO/TKO, or disqualification; 50-50 if no contest or postponed beyond March 14, 2026
- Fight to Distance (Decision): Resolves Yes if fight goes full scheduled rounds and result determined by judges' scorecards (including judge-decided draws); No if ended early by KO/TKO, submission, or disqualification; 50-50 if no contest or postponed beyond March 14, 2026
- Round Duration Thresholds (O/U 0.5, 1.5, 2.5): Over resolves if fight continues past the 2:30 mark of the specified round; Under resolves if fight ends before 2:30 of that round; exactly 2:30 resolves 50-50; 50-50 if not scored or postponed beyond March 14, 2026
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Draw or Technical Draw: Resolves to 50-50 on winner market; resolves No on method-specific markets (KO/TKO, submission); resolves Yes on distance market if judges' scorecards after all rounds
- No Contest or Not Scored: All markets resolve 50-50
- Cancellation or Postponement Beyond March 14, 2026: All markets resolve 50-50
- Exact Round Threshold (e.g., 2:30 of Round 2 for O/U 1.5): Resolves 50-50
- Disqualification: Winner market resolves based on UFC official determination; method-specific markets (KO/TKO, submission) resolve No
Timing:
Resolution occurs immediately upon official UFC announcement of fight result; deadline for postponement consideration is March 14, 2026Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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