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404,175

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2,685

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5

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UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win Farés Ziam vs Axel Sola?

Volume:
$2,091,690

Axel Sola

 - Kalshi

Axel Sola - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 5, 2026

Closed: Sep 5, 5:34 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Axel Sola

View
100%
58%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,135,081
N/A
N/A
$893,886
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Sola to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,776
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
76%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,572
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Fares Ziam

View
0%
60%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$499,333
N/A
N/A
$455,476
Settled
No
polymarket

Farés Ziam vs. Axel Sola

View
0%
58%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$448,592
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
62%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,086
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,033
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Ziam to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$887
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
65%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$255
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
84%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$77
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
0%
91%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether Axel Sola will win his UFC Fight Night bout against Farés Ziam by KO or TKO. Currently, the consensus probability across Polymarket and Kalshi is 100.0%. Resolution will be based on official information from the UFC regarding the fight result. This group of markets covers various outcomes of the September 5, 2026 bout, including winner determination and method of victory. Keep an eye on the official weigh-in results on September 4, 2026, as a potential signal of each fighter’s condition heading into the match.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets across Polymarket and Kalshi resolve based on the same official UFC result, with consistent handling of draws, No Contests, cancellations, and postponements.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the UFC

Core resolution logic:

  • The winner is determined by official UFC declaration
  • KO/TKO includes referee, doctor, or corner stoppage
  • Submission includes tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission
  • Draws resolved as specified per market (e.g., 'Yes' for fight going the distance)
  • No Contest, cancellation, or postponement beyond September 19, 2026 triggers 50-50 splits where applicable

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • No Contest: Results in 50-50 split for markets specifying this condition, and 'No' for method-of-victory markets
  • Exact round threshold: If fight ends exactly at the threshold (e.g., 2:30 mark of Round 1), it resolves to 50-50 for O/U markets
Timing: Resolution occurs after the official UFC declaration of the fight result, no later than September 19, 2026Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Farés Ziam" if Farés Ziam is officially declared the winner of the fight against Axel Sola at UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse, scheduled for September 5, 2026. It will resolve to "Axel Sola" if Axel Sola is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 19, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

If Fares Ziam wins the Ziam vs Sola professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Axel Sola wins the Ziam vs Sola professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices can vary because of differences in user base, trading volume, and design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For instance, one platform might attract more aggressive traders, pushing its implied probability away from the other. Liquidity gaps also play a role—lower volume can amplify price swings, especially for niche markets like this one.