TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Regina Tarin (Catchweight, Prelims)
Volume:
$1,070,196
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a UFC Fight Night catchweight preliminary bout between Ernesta Kareckaite and Regina Tarin scheduled for February 28, 2026. Markets span winner determination, finish method (KO/TKO vs submission), fight duration (round overs/unders), and whether the fight goes to judges' decision.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms (Kalshi and Polymarket) apply identical resolution logic: official UFC outcome determination, consistent edge-case handling (50-50 for draws/no contests/cancellations/postponements beyond March 14, 2026), and aligned finish-method definitions.
Primary resolution logic:
Official UFC records, UFC.com events page, and UFC official announcementsCore resolution logic:
- Winner determination: resolves to officially declared victor (Kareckaite or Tarin) or 50-50 if draw, technical draw, no contest, not scored, or canceled/postponed beyond March 14, 2026
- KO/TKO finish: resolves Yes if fight ends by knockout, technical knockout, referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage; resolves No if draw, disqualification, or other finish; resolves 50-50 if no contest/not scored/canceled/postponed beyond March 14, 2026
- Submission finish: resolves Yes if fight ends by tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to submission hold); resolves No if draw, disqualification, or other finish; resolves 50-50 if no contest/not scored/canceled/postponed beyond March 14, 2026
- Round duration (O/U 0.5/1.5/2.5): resolves Over if fight continues past the specified round threshold (e.g., past 2:30 of Round 1 for 0.5), Under if ends before threshold, 50-50 if ends exactly at threshold or bout not scored/canceled/postponed beyond March 14, 2026
- Distance (full rounds): resolves Yes if fight completes all scheduled rounds and result determined by judges' scorecards (including judge-decided draws); resolves No if technical decision/technical draw declared before completion; resolves 50-50 if no contest/not scored/canceled/postponed beyond March 14, 2026
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Exact round threshold timing: If fight ends exactly at the threshold mark (e.g., 2:30 of Round 1 for O/U 0.5), market resolves 50-50
- Draw outcomes: Judge-decided draws after all rounds resolve Yes for distance market; draws resolve No for finish-method markets; draws resolve 50-50 for winner market
- Technical decision or technical draw: Resolves No for distance market; resolves 50-50 for winner market if declared before completion
- Disqualification: Resolves No for finish-method markets (KO/TKO, submission); resolves 50-50 for winner market
- Cancellation or postponement: If bout canceled or postponed beyond March 14, 2026, all markets resolve 50-50
Timing:
Resolution occurs on or immediately after February 28, 2026, upon official UFC declaration of fight outcome. If postponed, resolution window extends to March 14, 2026; postponements beyond that date trigger 50-50 resolution across all markets.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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