TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
UFC Fight Night: Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Regina Tarin (Catchweight, Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

UFC Fight Night: Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Regina Tarin (Catchweight, Prelims)

Volume:
$1,070,196

Regina Tarin

 - Kalshi

Regina Tarin - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 1, 2026

Closed: Feb 28, 10:40 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Regina Tarin

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$460,190
N/A
N/A
$289,259
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$320
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$208
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$103
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$91
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ernesta Kareckaite

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$307,107
N/A
N/A
$224,753
Settled
No
polymarket

Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Regina Tarin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$301,536
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$288
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Kareckaite to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$126
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$120
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Tarin to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$107
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This event group covers a UFC Fight Night catchweight preliminary bout between Ernesta Kareckaite and Regina Tarin scheduled for February 28, 2026. Markets span winner determination, finish method (KO/TKO vs submission), fight duration (round overs/unders), and whether the fight goes to judges' decision.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms (Kalshi and Polymarket) apply identical resolution logic: official UFC outcome determination, consistent edge-case handling (50-50 for draws/no contests/cancellations/postponements beyond March 14, 2026), and aligned finish-method definitions.Primary resolution logic: Official UFC records, UFC.com events page, and UFC official announcements

Core resolution logic:

  • Winner determination: resolves to officially declared victor (Kareckaite or Tarin) or 50-50 if draw, technical draw, no contest, not scored, or canceled/postponed beyond March 14, 2026
  • KO/TKO finish: resolves Yes if fight ends by knockout, technical knockout, referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage; resolves No if draw, disqualification, or other finish; resolves 50-50 if no contest/not scored/canceled/postponed beyond March 14, 2026
  • Submission finish: resolves Yes if fight ends by tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to submission hold); resolves No if draw, disqualification, or other finish; resolves 50-50 if no contest/not scored/canceled/postponed beyond March 14, 2026
  • Round duration (O/U 0.5/1.5/2.5): resolves Over if fight continues past the specified round threshold (e.g., past 2:30 of Round 1 for 0.5), Under if ends before threshold, 50-50 if ends exactly at threshold or bout not scored/canceled/postponed beyond March 14, 2026
  • Distance (full rounds): resolves Yes if fight completes all scheduled rounds and result determined by judges' scorecards (including judge-decided draws); resolves No if technical decision/technical draw declared before completion; resolves 50-50 if no contest/not scored/canceled/postponed beyond March 14, 2026

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact round threshold timing: If fight ends exactly at the threshold mark (e.g., 2:30 of Round 1 for O/U 0.5), market resolves 50-50
  • Draw outcomes: Judge-decided draws after all rounds resolve Yes for distance market; draws resolve No for finish-method markets; draws resolve 50-50 for winner market
  • Technical decision or technical draw: Resolves No for distance market; resolves 50-50 for winner market if declared before completion
  • Disqualification: Resolves No for finish-method markets (KO/TKO, submission); resolves 50-50 for winner market
  • Cancellation or postponement: If bout canceled or postponed beyond March 14, 2026, all markets resolve 50-50
Timing: Resolution occurs on or immediately after February 28, 2026, upon official UFC declaration of fight outcome. If postponed, resolution window extends to March 14, 2026; postponements beyond that date trigger 50-50 resolution across all markets.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.