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UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims)

Volume:
$1,435,105

Farman Hasanov

 - Kalshi

Farman Hasanov - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 13, 2026

Closed: Jun 27, 12:04 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Farman Hasanov

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$679,324
N/A
N/A
$443,451
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$11,640
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$978
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$225
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$69
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Eric Nolan

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$510,785
N/A
N/A
$369,502
Settled
No
polymarket

Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$229,076
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,511
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Nolan to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,286
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Hasanov to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$128
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$84
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks the duration of the UFC Fight Night preliminary welterweight bout between Eric Nolan and Farman Hasanov, specifically whether the fight will conclude within 2.5 rounds or extend beyond that threshold. The aggregated consensus across Kalshi and Polymarket stands at 99.9% for the over/under 2.5 rounds outcome. Resolution will be determined by official UFC records at ufc.com/events. Watch for the fight's scheduled date of June 27, 2026, when the bout takes place and the round count will be officially recorded.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's binary winner market lacks explicit edge-case resolution rules (draws, No Contest, cancellation), while Polymarket defines comprehensive 50-50 fallbacks. Scope and source transparency differ between platforms.Hero tip: Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket will settle identically on edge cases. Polymarket's 50-50 rule for No Contest/cancellation is explicit; Kalshi's is silent. Request Kalshi clarification on draw/No Contest handling before settlement. For Polymarket, the July 11, 2026 deadline is a hard cutoff for postponement treatment.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Six granular markets covering winner (Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov), method (KO/TKO, submission, distance), and round duration (O/U 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds). All markets include explicit 50-50 fallback for draw, technical draw, No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 11, 2026. Resolution source: official UFC information. Key quote: 'If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 11, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50.'
  • Kalshi: Single binary market: 'Yes' if either Farman Hasanov or Eric Nolan wins the fight originally scheduled for June 27, 2026. No explicit edge-case definitions for draws, No Contest, cancellation, or postponement. Resolution source not stated. Key quote: 'If Farman Hasanov wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Eric Nolan wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Eric Nolan" if Eric Nolan is officially declared the winner of the fight against Farman Hasanov at UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres, scheduled for June 27, 2026. It will resolve to "Farman Hasanov" if Farman Hasanov is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 11, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

This market covers the professional MMA fight between Farman Hasanov and Eric Nolan originally scheduled for June 27, 2026. Resolution depends on the fight's official outcome: if Hasanov wins, that market resolves to Yes; if Nolan wins, that market resolves to Yes. If the fight is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled fight concludes within two weeks. In the event of a tie or no contest, both fighter markets resolve to 50/50. Should the fight be cancelled or rescheduled more than two weeks away, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with established rules.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price fights differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract margin, while prediction markets rely on trader conviction and capital allocation. This market's odds reflect what thousands of individual traders believe will happen, often incorporating real-time fighter news, injury reports, and social sentiment faster than traditional books adjust. However, sportsbooks may offer tighter spreads and more liquidity on major events, whereas prediction markets excel at surfacing niche or contrarian views on preliminary fights like this one.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, fee structures, and regulatory frameworks. Polymarket uses an automated market maker model that can reward early movers and arbitrageurs, while Kalshi employs a traditional order-book design favoring institutional participation. Liquidity depth, user geography, and platform-specific incentives all influence how quickly new information gets priced in. A fighter injury announcement or media narrative shift may ripple through one venue faster than the other, creating temporary spreads that savvy traders can exploit before consensus realigns.

Fighter injury announcements, training camp updates, and weight-cut complications are primary catalysts that shift odds dramatically. Social media activity, analyst commentary, and betting action on external sportsbooks can also influence trader sentiment here. Lineup changes, opponent substitutions, or late-notice rule adjustments would trigger sharp repricing. Additionally, if either fighter gains or loses notable public support through recent performances or media coverage, this market will reflect that shift in real time. Close monitoring of MMA news outlets and official UFC communications is essential for staying ahead of market moves.