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UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Cameron Nelson (Welterweight, Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Cameron Nelson (Welterweight, Prelims)

Volume:
$1,140,878

Cameron Nelson

 - Kalshi

Cameron Nelson - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 29, 2026

Closed: Aug 29, 3:39 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Cameron Nelson

View
100%
58%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$353,816
N/A
N/A
$202,498
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
51%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,589
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
53%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,735
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
27%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,240
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$406
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ding Meng

View
0%
57%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$474,727
N/A
N/A
$319,526
Settled
No
polymarket

Ding Meng vs. Cameron Nelson

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$306,054
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
42%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$300
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Meng to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
54%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
62%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Nelson to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
37%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC Fight Night bout between Ding Meng and Cameron Nelson will last over or under 2.5 rounds. The aggregated consensus probability for the leading outcome, O/U 2.5 Rounds, is currently 100.0% across Kalshi and Polymarket. The result will be determined by the official UFC announcement. Watch for the scheduled fight date on August 29, 2026, as it will confirm whether the bout proceeds and impacts the market outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets across Polymarket and Kalshi share identical resolution criteria based on official UFC declarations, with consistent handling of edge cases like draws, No Contests, and cancellationsPrimary resolution logic: Official UFC announcement

Core resolution logic:

  • Winner markets resolve to the officially declared winner
  • Method of victory markets (KO/TKO, submission) resolve based on how the win occurs
  • Duration markets resolve based on whether the fight completes scheduled rounds
  • Round threshold markets resolve based on whether fight duration crosses specified round boundaries
  • Draws, No Contests, disqualifications, cancellations, or postponements beyond September 12, 2026 resolve as 50-50 where applicable

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact threshold crossing: If a fight ends exactly at a round threshold (e.g., ends at 2:30 of Round 1 for O/U 0.5 Rounds), it resolves as 50-50
  • Doctor stoppage: Counts as KO/TKO for relevant markets, but does not count as going the distance
  • Corner stoppage: Counts as KO/TKO, not as going the distance
Timing: Resolution occurs immediately after the official UFC announcement of the fight result, typically within 24 hours of the eventOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Ding Meng" if Ding Meng is officially declared the winner of the fight against Cameron Nelson at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song, scheduled for August 29, 2026. It will resolve to "Cameron Nelson" if Cameron Nelson is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 12, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

The market resolves according to the outcome of the Meng vs Nelson professional MMA fight originally scheduled for August 29, 2026. Should the fight be postponed or delayed, the market stays open until the rescheduled fight finishes, as long as it occurs within two weeks of the original date. A tie or no contest results in a 50/50 resolution for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled beyond two weeks from the original date, the market resolves at a fair price per the rules. These markets are not endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC, and any mention of UFC is for descriptive purposes only.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Ding Meng vs. Nelson fight market aggregates data from multiple platforms, showing real-time odds, volume of $1,140,878, and 24-hour volume of $917,260. It provides a consensus view of how traders across venues price the fight’s possible outcomes, letting you compare sentiment and spot shifts in expectations as the event approaches.

On Polymarket, this market leans heavily toward one outcome, while Kalshi shows a more balanced distribution. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Such gaps often arise from differences in user bases, liquidity depth, and how each platform weights new information. For example, a surge in social media buzz around a specific fighter could drive Polymarket prices sharply before Kalshi traders react. Additionally, varying fee structures and market design choices can amplify or dampen price movements, especially in lower-volume events like this one.