TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: Dennis Buzukja vs. Marcio Barbosa (Featherweight, Prelims)
Volume:
$730,356
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Dennis Buzukja and Marcio Barbosa will compete in a featherweight preliminary bout at UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott on April 18, 2026. Markets track the fight outcome (winner), method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), duration (round thresholds), and distance completion. All resolution determinations are sourced from official UFC records.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market has a logical contradiction: it resolves YES if EITHER fighter wins, making it impossible to resolve to NO. This creates a fundamentally unresolvable market structure that violates basic binary logic.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market. The resolution logic is broken—it will resolve YES regardless of fight outcome. Polymarket markets are tradeable and use standard UFC resolution criteria; Kalshi market should be avoided or flagged for cancellation.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: All markets use standard UFC resolution logic with clear binary outcomes. Winner markets resolve to the named fighter if they win, or 50-50 for draws/cancellations. Method-of-victory markets (submission, KO/TKO) resolve YES only if that specific method occurs. Distance markets resolve YES only if the fight goes the full scheduled rounds. Quote: 'This market will resolve to [fighter name] if [fighter name] is officially declared the winner' and 'Otherwise, it will resolve to No.'
- Kalshi: The single Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction. It states: 'If Marcio Barbosa wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Dennis Buzukja wins...then the market resolves to Yes.' This means the market resolves YES for both possible fight outcomes, leaving no path to NO resolution. Quote: 'If Marcio Barbosa wins the Buzukja vs Barbosa professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Apr 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Dennis Buzukja wins the Buzukja vs Barbosa professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Apr 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.