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UFC Fight Night: Daniel Rodriguez vs. Uroš Medic (Welterweight, Main Card)
kalshi
polymarket

UFC Fight Night: Daniel Rodriguez vs. Uroš Medic (Welterweight, Main Card)

Volume:
$3,436,819

Uros Medic

 - Kalshi

Uros Medic - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 1, 2026

Closed: Aug 1, 3:34 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Uros Medic

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,241,443
N/A
N/A
$1,089,520
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Medic to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,157
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
6¢
N/A
$306
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Daniel Rodriguez

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,844,166
N/A
N/A
$1,748,249
Settled
No
polymarket

Daniel Rodriguez vs. Uroš Medic

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$317,544
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,167
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,943
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,717
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Rodriguez to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,890
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$369
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 3.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$107
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 4.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 13

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC Fight Night bout between Daniel Rodriguez and Uroš Medic will end in a win by KO or TKO. The aggregated consensus probability for this outcome stands at 82.0%, drawing data from Kalshi and Polymarket, with resolution based on official information from the UFC. The result will be confirmed following the fight's conclusion on August 1, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets across Polymarket and Kalshi resolve based on the same official UFC results and definitions for fight outcomes, methods of victory, and duration thresholds.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the UFC

Core resolution logic:

  • The winner is determined by the UFC's official declaration post-fight
  • Fight duration is measured by the official round timing as recorded by the UFC
  • KO/TKO includes referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage
  • Submission includes tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission
  • Draws, no contests, cancellations, or post-August 15 postponements resolve as 50-50 for all markets unless otherwise specified

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact Threshold Duration: If the fight ends exactly at the threshold for over/under round markets, it resolves to 50-50
  • Disqualification: If either fighter is disqualified, all markets resolve to No or 50-50 depending on the specific market rules
Timing: Resolution occurs immediately following the official UFC announcement of the fight result, typically within 24 hours after the eventOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Daniel Rodriguez" if Daniel Rodriguez is officially declared the winner of the fight against Uroš Medic at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez, scheduled for August 1, 2026. It will resolve to "Uroš Medic" if Uroš Medic is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 15, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

If Uros Medic wins the Medic vs Rodriguez professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Daniel Rodriguez wins the Medic vs Rodriguez professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Rodriguez vs. Medic fight market aggregates real-time data across multiple venues, showing how traders on Polymarket and Kalshi price the likelihood of various outcomes. It displays current probabilities, volume of $3,436,819, and 24-hour volume of $3,157,273, allowing users to see consensus views and compare expectations for this upcoming UFC bout.