TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)
Volume:
$797,040
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers prediction markets on the UFC Fight Night main card matchup between Dan Ige and Melquizael Costa (featherweight division), scheduled for February 21, 2026. Markets span multiple outcome dimensions: fight winner, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), distance (round thresholds), and go-the-distance scenarios.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi uses exhaustive outcome coverage (all 7 fight results map to YES), while Polymarket uses selective outcome-specific markets (winner, method, distance). The platforms measure different dimensions of the same event, creating incompatible resolution frameworks.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket markets will correlate. Kalshi guarantees one market resolves YES; Polymarket may resolve all NO or mixed YES/NO/50-50 depending on fight outcome and timing. Monitor the official UFC event page (ufc.com/events) for cancellations or postponements beyond March 7, 2026, as this triggers 50-50 resolution on Polymarket but may not affect Kalshi's scheduled-date logic.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Seven binary YES/NO markets covering all mutually exclusive outcomes: Draw, Costa Submission, Costa Decision, Costa KO-TKO-DQ, Ige KO-TKO-DQ, Ige Decision, Ige Submission. Exactly one outcome must occur, guaranteeing one market resolves YES. No explicit fallback for cancellation or postponement mentioned.
- Polymarket: Six outcome-specific markets: Go-the-Distance (YES if judges' decision after full rounds), Winner (Ige/Costa/50-50), KO-TKO (YES if either fighter), Costa KO-TKO (YES if Costa), Submission (YES if either fighter), Ige KO-TKO (YES if Ige), and Round Over-Under thresholds (0.5, 1.5, 2.5). All resolve 50-50 if fight is No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 7, 2026.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.