TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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UFC Fight Night: Chris Padilla vs. Nasrat Haqparast (Lightweight, Prelims)
polymarket
kalshi

UFC Fight Night: Chris Padilla vs. Nasrat Haqparast (Lightweight, Prelims)

Volume:
$2,850,220

Christopher Padilla

 - Kalshi

Christopher Padilla - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 22, 2026

Closed: Aug 22, 7:09 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Christopher Padilla

View
100%
48%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,551,619
N/A
N/A
$1,140,299
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Chris Padilla vs. Nasrat Haqparast

View
100%
48%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$553,353
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Nasrat Haqparast

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$724,598
N/A
N/A
$517,107
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
100%
91%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
5¢
N/A
$2,917
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,635
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,593
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
18%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$893
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
62%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,094
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Padilla to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,470
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Haqparast to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
29%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$543
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
39%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$504
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC Fight Night lightweight bout between Chris Padilla and Nasrat Haqparast, scheduled for August 22, 2026, will last more than half a round. The aggregated consensus across Polymarket and Kalshi shows a leading probability of 98.0% for the O/U 0.5 Rounds outcome. Resolution is determined by the official UFC announcement. Watch for the official fight result on August 22, 2026, which will settle this market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets across platforms share identical resolution criteria based on official UFC results with consistent handling of draws, no contests, and cancellationsPrimary resolution logic: Official UFC announcement

Core resolution logic:

  • Winner markets resolve to declared winner; draws and no contests resolve as 50-50
  • Method markets (KO/TKO, Submission) resolve only if specified method achieves victory
  • Round duration markets use precise time thresholds with exact-time ties resolving as 50-50
  • Any fight not occurring by September 5, 2026 (canceled, postponed, or not scored) resolves as 50-50 for all markets

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact Threshold Timing: If a round ends precisely at the threshold time (e.g., 2:30 of Round 1 for O/U 0.5 Rounds), market resolves as 50-50
  • Disqualification: Any market involving method of victory resolves as 'No' if fight ends by disqualification
Timing: Resolution occurs immediately following official UFC announcement of fight result, typically within 24 hours of fight conclusionOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Chris Padilla" if Chris Padilla is officially declared the winner of the fight against Nasrat Haqparast at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues, scheduled for August 22, 2026. It will resolve to "Nasrat Haqparast" if Nasrat Haqparast is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 5, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the winner of the Padilla vs Haqparast professional MMA fight originally scheduled for August 22, 2026. If the fight is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled fight concludes within two weeks. In the event of a tie or no contest, the market resolves to a 50/50 split for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to more than two weeks away from the original date, the market resolves to a fair price as determined by the rules. These markets are not endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC, and any references to UFC are purely descriptive.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard tracks the Padilla vs. Haqparast fight outcome market across multiple prediction platforms, showing how traders price the chances of different results. It aggregates volume and recent activity to give you a consensus view of market sentiment. You can see how Polymarket and Kalshi compare, spot any major shifts, and gauge overall interest ahead of the bout. The dashboard updates live, so it reflects the latest bets and sentiment as fight day approaches.

Several signals could shift prices in this market before it settles. Key fighters’ media appearances, training updates, or injury reports often influence trader sentiment. Betting trends on either platform, especially large trades, can also create momentum. As the fight nears, any last-minute changes — such as weight-miss announcements or coaching strategies — may cause rapid price swings. Tracking news feeds and volume spikes will help you spot potential moves.