TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: Chidi Njokuani vs. Carlos Leal (Welterweight, Prelims)
Volume:
$1,291,883
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers multiple prediction markets on the UFC Fight Night preliminary welterweight bout between Chidi Njokuani and Carlos Leal, scheduled for February 21, 2026. Markets span fighter winner, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), fight duration (over/under round thresholds), and distance completion, with resolution tied to official UFC records.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Kalshi and Polymarket markets use identical resolution source (official UFC records) and apply consistent edge-case handling (50-50 for cancellations, postponements beyond March 7, 2026, No Contest, and exact threshold ties).
Primary resolution logic:
Official UFC records and announcements (ufc.com)Core resolution logic:
- Fighter Winner: Resolves to the fighter officially declared winner by UFC (Njokuani or Leal), or 50-50 if draw, technical draw, No Contest, or not scored.
- Method of Finish - KO/TKO: Resolves Yes if fight ends by knockout, technical knockout, referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage; No if decision, submission, or draw; 50-50 if No Contest, not scored, or postponed beyond March 7, 2026.
- Method of Finish - Submission: Resolves Yes if fight ends by tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to submission hold); No if decision, KO/TKO, or draw; 50-50 if No Contest, not scored, or postponed beyond March 7, 2026.
- Method of Finish - Decision (Distance): Resolves Yes if fight goes full scheduled rounds and result determined by judges' scorecards (including judge-decided draws); No if finished early by KO/TKO or submission; 50-50 if No Contest, not scored, technical decision before all rounds, or postponed beyond March 7, 2026.
- Fight Duration Over/Under Thresholds: Over resolves Yes if fight continues past the specified round threshold (e.g., past 2:30 of Round 3 for Over 2.5); Under resolves Yes if fight ends before threshold; 50-50 if finish occurs exactly at threshold or bout is not scored/canceled/postponed beyond March 7, 2026.
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Exact Threshold Finish: If fight ends exactly at the specified time threshold (e.g., 2:30 of Round 3 for a 2.5 line), all duration markets resolve 50-50.
- No Contest or Not Scored: All markets resolve 50-50 if bout is ruled No Contest or not scored by UFC officials.
- Cancellation or Postponement: All markets resolve 50-50 if bout is canceled or postponed beyond March 7, 2026.
- Draw or Technical Draw: Fighter winner market resolves 50-50; method-specific markets (KO/TKO, submission) resolve No; distance market resolves Yes only if judges' scorecards determine the draw after all rounds.
- Disqualification: Method-specific markets (KO/TKO, submission) resolve No if either fighter is disqualified; fighter winner market resolves to the non-disqualified fighter as winner.
Timing:
Resolution occurs on or shortly after February 21, 2026, upon official UFC announcement of fight result. All markets must resolve by March 7, 2026, or default to 50-50.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.