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UFC Fight Night: Carli Judice vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win Carli Judice vs. Jeisla Chaves?

Volume:
$1,839,271

Carli Judice

 - Kalshi

Carli Judice - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 23, 2026

Closed: Aug 22, 8:50 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Carli Judice

View
100%
16%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$715,426
N/A
N/A
$563,333
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Carli Judice vs. Jeisla Chaves

View
100%
16%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$114,518
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Judice to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
64%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,015
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
51%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$428
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Jeisla Chaves

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$993,445
N/A
N/A
$950,922
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
50%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,897
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,807
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,641
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$600
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
0%
90%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$312
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Chaves to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$182
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the UFC Fight Night bout between Carli Judice and Jeisla Chaves in the Women's Strawweight division. The aggregated consensus probability shows Carli Judice winning at 100.0%. Data is drawn from Polymarket and Kalshi, with resolution based on official information from the UFC. Watch for the official fight result announced following the event scheduled for August 22, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets across Polymarket and Kalshi resolve based on the same official UFC result for the Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves fight, with consistent handling of draws, no contests, cancellations, and method-of-victory conditions.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the UFC

Core resolution logic:

  • The fight winner is determined by the UFC's official declaration.
  • Methods of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision) are determined by UFC officials at the time of the fight's conclusion.
  • Draws, no contests, cancellations, or post-September 5, 2026 postponements result in 50-50 resolution for relevant markets.
  • Round-based markets (O/U rounds) resolve based on the exact round and time the fight ends, with exact thresholds resulting in 50-50.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Draw or No Contest: All markets specifying a winner resolve 50-50. Method-of-victory markets resolve 'No'. Round-based markets resolve according to their specific threshold rules, with exact thresholds resulting in 50-50.
  • Cancellation or Postponement: All markets resolve 50-50 if the fight is canceled or postponed beyond September 5, 2026.
Timing: Resolution occurs immediately following the official UFC announcement of the fight result, which will happen on or after August 22, 2026.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Carli Judice" if Carli Judice is officially declared the winner of the fight against Jeisla Chaves at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues, scheduled for August 22, 2026. It will resolve to "Jeisla Chaves" if Jeisla Chaves is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 5, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the winner of the Judice vs Chaves professional MMA fight originally scheduled for August 22, 2026. If the fight is postponed or delayed, the market stays open and closes after the rescheduled fight concludes, provided it happens within two weeks of the original date. In the event of a tie or no contest, the market resolves as a 50/50 split for both participants. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to more than two weeks beyond the original date, the market resolves at a fair price as determined by the rules. These conditions apply equally to markets for both fighters, ensuring consistent resolution criteria regardless of scheduling changes or contest outcomes.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves fight market aggregates real-time data from multiple platforms, showing the latest probabilities, volume of $1,839,271, and 24-hour volume of $1,646,578. It provides a consensus view of how traders across different venues price this market, letting you see where the most activity is happening and compare sentiment as the event approaches.

Several signals could shift probabilities in this market before it settles. Key events include pre-fight media appearances, training updates, injury reports, or changes in betting trends. Any news affecting the fighters' form, strategy, or even weigh-in results may cause traders to adjust their positions, thus moving the market closer to resolution.