TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)
Volume:
$5,168,885
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a UFC Fight Night main card flyweight bout between Brandon Moreno and Lone'er Kavanagh scheduled for February 28, 2026. Markets span winner determination, fight duration (rounds), and method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, or decision).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket provides comprehensive, method-specific resolution criteria with explicit edge-case handling, while Kalshi offers only binary winner determination without method or edge-case specification. This creates scope incompleteness on Kalshi but does not render either platform fundamentally unresolvable.Hero Tip:
Polymarket markets are more granular and suitable for precise outcome trading. Kalshi's binary markets are simpler but lack transparency on draws and cancellations. Cross-platform traders should prioritize Polymarket's explicit 50-50 fallback rules and confirm Kalshi's edge-case behavior with platform support before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Winner (Moreno/Kavanagh/50-50), Fight Distance (0.5/1.5/2.5 rounds Over/Under), Method (KO/TKO, Submission, Decision), and Fighter-Specific KO/TKO outcomes. All markets resolve 50-50 if draw, no contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 14, 2026. Key Quote: 'If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 14, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50.'
- Kalshi: Binary winner determination only (Moreno wins Yes/No, Kavanagh wins Yes/No). No method-of-victory, round-duration, or explicit edge-case resolution criteria provided. Key Quote: 'If Loneer Kavanagh wins the Moreno vs Kavanagh professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Feb 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.