TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)

Volume:
$5,168,885

Loneer Kavanagh

 - Kalshi

Loneer Kavanagh - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 1, 2026

Closed: Mar 1, 3:20 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Loneer Kavanagh

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,731,208
N/A
N/A
$1,325,991
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$15,992
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,060
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$207
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$165
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Brandon Moreno

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,297,607
N/A
N/A
$1,745,129
Settled
No
polymarket

Moreno vs. Kavanagh

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,111,676
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Moreno to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,550
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Kavanagh to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,087
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,868
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$466
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This event group covers a UFC Fight Night main card flyweight bout between Brandon Moreno and Lone'er Kavanagh scheduled for February 28, 2026. Markets span winner determination, fight duration (rounds), and method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, or decision).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket provides comprehensive, method-specific resolution criteria with explicit edge-case handling, while Kalshi offers only binary winner determination without method or edge-case specification. This creates scope incompleteness on Kalshi but does not render either platform fundamentally unresolvable.Hero tip: Polymarket markets are more granular and suitable for precise outcome trading. Kalshi's binary markets are simpler but lack transparency on draws and cancellations. Cross-platform traders should prioritize Polymarket's explicit 50-50 fallback rules and confirm Kalshi's edge-case behavior with platform support before settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Winner (Moreno/Kavanagh/50-50), Fight Distance (0.5/1.5/2.5 rounds Over/Under), Method (KO/TKO, Submission, Decision), and Fighter-Specific KO/TKO outcomes. All markets resolve 50-50 if draw, no contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 14, 2026. Key Quote: 'If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 14, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50.'
  • Kalshi: Binary winner determination only (Moreno wins Yes/No, Kavanagh wins Yes/No). No method-of-victory, round-duration, or explicit edge-case resolution criteria provided. Key Quote: 'If Loneer Kavanagh wins the Moreno vs Kavanagh professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Feb 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.