TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
UFC Fight Night: Austin Bashi vs. Jose Miguel Delgado (Featherweight, Prelims)
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the Bashi vs. Delgado featherweight fight?

Volume:
$5,398,746

Jose Delgado

 - Kalshi

Jose Delgado - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 19, 2026

Closed: Jul 18, 8:24 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Jose Delgado

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,072,916
N/A
N/A
$1,225,738
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$13,903
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,339
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$503
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$236
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Austin Bashi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,795,065
N/A
N/A
$1,189,287
Settled
No
polymarket

Austin Bashi vs. Jose Miguel Delgado

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,512,362
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$689
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Delgado to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$489
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$217
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Bashi to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks the duration of a UFC featherweight preliminary bout between Austin Bashi and Jose Miguel Delgado scheduled for July 18, 2026, at UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman. Aggregated data from Polymarket and Kalshi shows 100.0% consensus probability for the Over/Under 1.5 Rounds outcome, with resolution sourced from UFC.com. Watch for the fight's completion on July 18 to determine whether the bout extends beyond the first round and a half.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's winner market lacks explicit edge-case resolution rules (draws, no contests, cancellations) that Polymarket defines comprehensively. This creates ambiguity in non-standard fight outcomes.Hero tip: For Kalshi, treat a draw, technical decision, no contest, or cancellation as a No resolution unless Kalshi publishes supplementary guidance. For Polymarket, all edge cases resolve to 50-50. Verify the UFC's official fight classification immediately post-event to avoid settlement disputes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Provides 9 distinct markets (winner, distance, KO/TKO, submission, round thresholds) with explicit 50-50 fallback for draws, technical decisions, no contests, cancellations, and postponements beyond August 1, 2026. All markets cite official UFC information as resolution source.
  • Kalshi: Single binary winner market (Yes if either fighter wins) with no published edge-case logic. Does not explicitly address draws, technical decisions, no contests, or cancellations. Assumes a clear winner will be declared.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Austin Bashi" if Austin Bashi is officially declared the winner of the fight against Jose Miguel Delgado at UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman, scheduled for July 18, 2026. It will resolve to "Jose Miguel Delgado" if Jose Miguel Delgado is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 1, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

Resolution depends on the official fight outcome. If the fight is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled bout concludes within two weeks. Ties or no-contests resolve at 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled beyond two weeks, the market resolves to a fair price per standard rules.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market activity across Polymarket and Kalshi for the Bashi vs. Delgado featherweight fight. Traders on both venues are pricing outcomes related to how the bout will conclude, with combined volume of $5,398,746 across all linked markets. The cross-platform view lets you compare real-time odds and identify where consensus is strongest or where the two venues diverge on likely results. This aggregation captures the collective forecast of professional prediction market participants ahead of the July 2026 event.

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price outcomes differently because they serve different audiences and operate under different constraints. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and manage risk, often incorporating a margin. Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi rely on trader consensus—the crowd's aggregated belief about what will happen. Prediction market prices tend to reflect pure probability without a built-in margin, making them a useful benchmark for comparing to traditional betting lines. Both can move based on new information, but prediction markets often react faster to breaking news or expert commentary.

Several factors can shift odds before the fight takes place. Injury reports or fighter withdrawals would trigger sharp repricing across both venues. Training camp updates, recent fight footage, or expert analysis shared on social media often move prices as traders reassess each competitor's form and strategy. Weigh-in results and official fighter statements can influence sentiment. Major sportsbook line moves may also signal new information reaching the broader betting community. As the event date approaches, any late-breaking news about fighter condition, rule changes, or venue details could prompt significant trading activity and price adjustments.