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UFC Fight Night: Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues (Middleweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win UFC Fight Night: Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues?

Volume:
$10,812,009

Gregory Rodrigues

 - Kalshi

Gregory Rodrigues - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 23, 2026

Closed: Aug 22, 11:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Gregory Rodrigues

View
100%
64%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,342,749
N/A
N/A
$2,807,821
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
73%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$79,417
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 4.5 Rounds

View
100%
62%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,268
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 3.5 Rounds

View
100%
64%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,090
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,329
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$136
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$18
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Anthony Hernandez

View
0%
65%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,306,320
N/A
N/A
$2,445,306
Settled
No
polymarket

Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues

View
0%
64%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,057,228
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
51%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,570
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Hernandez to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,277
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Rodrigues to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
29%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,315
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
31%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,293
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 13

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC Fight Night bout between Anthony Hernandez and Gregory Rodrigues will last over or under 1.5 rounds. The aggregated consensus probability from Polymarket and Kalshi shows 100.0% for the leading outcome, O/U 1.5 Rounds. Resolution is based on the official UFC announcement. The key date to watch is August 22, 2026, when the fight is scheduled to take place and the betting period will conclude.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets across Polymarket and Kalshi resolve based on the same official UFC outcome for the fight, with consistent handling of draws, no contests, and cancellations.Primary resolution logic: Official UFC announcement

Core resolution logic:

  • The winner is determined by the UFC's official declaration
  • Draws, no contests, and cancellations after the event resolve as 50-50 for relevant markets
  • Specific round threshold markets resolve as Over/Under based on whether the fight crosses the threshold, with exact thresholds resolving as 50-50
  • All markets default to 50-50 if the fight is not held by September 5, 2026

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact Threshold: If the fight ends exactly at the threshold for round-based markets, it resolves as 50-50
  • Postponement: If the fight is postponed beyond September 5, 2026, all markets resolve as 50-50
Timing: Resolution occurs after the official UFC announcement of the fight result, no later than September 5, 2026Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Anthony Hernandez" if Anthony Hernandez is officially declared the winner of the fight against Gregory Rodrigues at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues, scheduled for August 22, 2026. It will resolve to "Gregory Rodrigues" if Gregory Rodrigues is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 5, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

If Anthony Hernandez wins the Hernandez vs Rodrigues professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Gregory Rodrigues wins the Hernandez vs Rodrigues professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the UFC middleweight fight market dashboard provides a real-time overview of how traders across platforms are pricing the outcomes of this event. It aggregates data to show the current consensus and volume trends, letting users monitor shifts in expectations as the fight approaches. The dashboard highlights changes in implied probabilities and total volume of $10,812,009 to help users gauge market sentiment. By tracking this market, participants can spot emerging patterns and compare how different prediction venues evaluate the fighters' chances ahead of the scheduled bout.