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UFC Fight Night: Angel Pacheco vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Card)
kalshi
polymarket

UFC Fight Night: Angel Pacheco vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Card)

Volume:
$1,353,706

Santiago Luna

 - Kalshi

Santiago Luna - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 1, 2026

Closed: Mar 1, 1:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Santiago Luna

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$573,497
N/A
N/A
$448,098
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$103,782
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$292
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$285
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$265
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Angel Pacheco

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$554,547
N/A
N/A
$477,254
Settled
No
polymarket

Pacheco vs. Luna

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$115,112
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Luna to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,822
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,908
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$624
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Pacheco to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$571
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This event group covers multiple prediction markets for the UFC Fight Night bantamweight main card bout between Angel Pacheco and Santiago Luna, scheduled for February 28, 2026. Markets span winner determination, fight duration thresholds, method of victory, and distance completion across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's winner market contains a logical contradiction: both Santiago Luna winning and Angel Pacheco winning are stated to resolve to Yes, which is impossible. Polymarket's winner market uses mutually exclusive outcomes (Pacheco vs. Luna) with proper draw/postponement handling. This makes Kalshi's market fundamentally unresolvable as written.Hero tip: Do not trade Kalshi's winner market without clarification from Kalshi support. The market as stated violates basic logic (both outcomes cannot both be Yes). For all other markets (duration, method, distance), Polymarket and Kalshi are consistent. Use Polymarket as the authoritative source for winner resolution and cross-reference method/duration markets for consistency.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Winner market states: 'If Santiago Luna wins... resolves to Yes' AND 'If Angel Pacheco wins... resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility where both fighters winning produce the same outcome. No mechanism for draw, no-contest, or postponement is specified.
  • Polymarket: Winner market resolves to 'Pacheco' if Angel Pacheco wins, 'Luna' if Santiago Luna wins (mutually exclusive). Draw, technical draw, no-contest, or postponement beyond March 14, 2026 all resolve 50-50. Source: official UFC information.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.