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402,751

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2,632

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5

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UFC Fight Night: Amanda Lemos vs. Alexia Thainara (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara?

Volume:
$590,580

Tammara Thibeault

 - Kalshi

Tammara Thibeault - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 9, 2026

Closed: Aug 9, 1:39 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tammara Thibeault

View
100%
18%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$44,643
N/A
N/A
$32,372
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
36%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,700
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
33%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,942
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$21
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
24%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Amanda Lemos vs. Alexia Thainara

View
0%
30%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$496,982
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Desley Robinson

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$36,370
N/A
N/A
$30,766
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
29%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,835
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Thainara to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$718
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Lemos to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$343
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This group of markets centers around the outcome of the UFC Fight Night women's strawweight bout between Amanda Lemos and Alexia Thainara, scheduled for August 8, 2026. Markets cover the winner, method of victory, whether the fight goes the distance, and round duration thresholds.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets uniformly resolve based on official UFC results for the August 8, 2026 event, with consistent handling of draws, no contests, and cancellations across Polymarket and Kalshi.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the UFC

Core resolution logic:

  • Winner markets resolve to the declared victor; draws or no contests result in 50-50 where applicable
  • Method-of-victory markets (KO/TKO, submission) resolve only if the specified method occurs; otherwise 'No'
  • Round-duration markets (O/U X.5 Rounds) resolve based on whether fight duration crosses the specified threshold; exact thresholds resolve 50-50
  • Any bout cancellation, postponement beyond August 22, 2026, or failure to score results in 50-50 for applicable markets

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact Threshold Crossings: If a fight ends exactly on a round threshold (e.g., end of Round 1 for O/U 0.5), it resolves 50-50
  • Disqualification: Any market specifying a method of victory (KO/TKO, submission) will resolve 'No' if the fight ends in disqualification
Timing: Resolution occurs after official UFC declaration of results, no later than August 22, 2026Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Amanda Lemos" if Amanda Lemos is officially declared the winner of the fight against Alexia Thainara at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld, scheduled for August 8, 2026. It will resolve to "Alexia Thainara" if Alexia Thainara is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 22, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

If Desley Robinson wins the Desley Robinson vs Tammara Thibeault boxing match originally scheduled for Aug 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tammara Thibeault wins the Desley Robinson vs Tammara Thibeault boxing match originally scheduled for Aug 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Lemos vs Thainara fight outcome market aggregates real-time data from multiple platforms, showing how traders price the chances of different results. It displays current probabilities, volume of $590,580, and 24-hour volume of $553,631, letting you see consensus and divergence across venues. This gives a live snapshot of market sentiment as the fight approaches, with updates reflecting new information or betting patterns.

Key signals that could shift this market include last-minute training updates, injury reports, or changes in fighter rankings. Media interviews, betting trends on either Polymarket or Kalshi, and pre-fight analytics can also sway trader sentiment. Any surprise announcements — such as strategy changes or psychological edges highlighted by coaches — may cause rapid adjustments in probability before the bout concludes.