TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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UFC Fight Night: Alden Coria vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

UFC Fight Night: Alden Coria vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims)

Volume:
$930,167

Coria vs. Gurule

 - Polymarket

Coria vs. Gurule - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Feb 22, 2026

UFC Fight Night: Alden Coria vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims)

100%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 100% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: N/A Illiquid market
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Coria vs. Gurule

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$368,018
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
kalshi

Alden Coria

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$281,984
0%
0%
$239,282
N/A
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,019
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,619
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,201
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,174
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
kalshi

Luis Gurule

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$270,018
0%
0%
$240,286
N/A
polymarket

Coria to win by KO/TKO?

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$853
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$715
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$339
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Gurule to win by KO/TKO?

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$227
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
Total markets: 11

Description

This event group covers multiple prediction markets for the UFC Fight Night preliminary bout between flyweight fighters Alden Coria and Luis Gurule, scheduled for February 21, 2026. Markets span winner determination, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), round duration thresholds, and fight distance completion.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's winner market contains a logical contradiction where both possible fight outcomes (Coria win or Gurule win) resolve to Yes, rendering the market non-functional. Polymarket provides coherent outcome-specific and method-specific markets with clear 50-50 fallbacks, but operates under a March 7, 2026 postponement deadline absent from Kalshi's terms.Hero tip: Disregard Kalshi's winner market entirely due to logical failure. Trade only Polymarket markets. Monitor UFC.com official fight status continuously; if the bout is postponed beyond March 7, 2026, all Polymarket markets resolve 50-50. For method-of-victory and round duration markets, note that exact threshold timing (e.g., fight ending at exactly 2:30 of Round 2 for 1.5 line) also triggers 50-50.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Winner market states both Gurule win and Coria win resolve to Yes, creating logical impossibility. No explicit edge-case handling for draw, no contest, or postponement provided. No deadline specified for postponement tolerance.
  • Polymarket: Outcome-specific market (Coria vs Gurule) resolves to fighter name or 50-50 for draw, technical draw, no contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 7, 2026. Method-of-victory markets (KO/TKO, submission, distance) and round duration markets include explicit 50-50 triggers for exact threshold timing, draw, disqualification, no contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 7, 2026.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.