TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: Alden Coria vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims)
Volume:
$930,167
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers multiple prediction markets for the UFC Fight Night preliminary bout between flyweight fighters Alden Coria and Luis Gurule, scheduled for February 21, 2026. Markets span winner determination, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), round duration thresholds, and fight distance completion.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's winner market contains a logical contradiction where both possible fight outcomes (Coria win or Gurule win) resolve to Yes, rendering the market non-functional. Polymarket provides coherent outcome-specific and method-specific markets with clear 50-50 fallbacks, but operates under a March 7, 2026 postponement deadline absent from Kalshi's terms.Hero Tip:
Disregard Kalshi's winner market entirely due to logical failure. Trade only Polymarket markets. Monitor UFC.com official fight status continuously; if the bout is postponed beyond March 7, 2026, all Polymarket markets resolve 50-50. For method-of-victory and round duration markets, note that exact threshold timing (e.g., fight ending at exactly 2:30 of Round 2 for 1.5 line) also triggers 50-50.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Winner market states both Gurule win and Coria win resolve to Yes, creating logical impossibility. No explicit edge-case handling for draw, no contest, or postponement provided. No deadline specified for postponement tolerance.
- Polymarket: Outcome-specific market (Coria vs Gurule) resolves to fighter name or 50-50 for draw, technical draw, no contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 7, 2026. Method-of-victory markets (KO/TKO, submission, distance) and round duration markets include explicit 50-50 triggers for exact threshold timing, draw, disqualification, no contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 7, 2026.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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