TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,590,312

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2,388,728,490

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$1,439,516,703

404,175

Markets across

30,277

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,685

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

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61%

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UFC Fight Night: Alberto Montes vs. Tommy McMillen (Featherweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win Alberto Montes vs. Tommy McMillen?

Volume:
$4,469,039

Tommy McMillen

 - Kalshi

Tommy McMillen - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 19, 2026

Closed: Jul 18, 8:44 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tommy McMillen

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,862,460
N/A
N/A
$1,321,261
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$11,609
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

McMillen to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,657
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$931
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$39
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Alberto Montes

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,977,556
N/A
N/A
$1,622,714
Settled
No
polymarket

Alberto Montes vs. Tommy McMillen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$545,355
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$65,155
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Montes to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,397
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$873
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks the over/under round duration for the UFC featherweight bout between Alberto Montes and Tommy McMillen at UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, the aggregated consensus probability for the O/U 2.5 Rounds outcome stands at 99.6%. Resolution will be determined by official UFC records. Watch for the fight's scheduled date of July 18, 2026, when the bout takes place and round duration will be officially recorded.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi measure fundamentally different market scopes. Polymarket offers method-specific and distance-specific markets with detailed edge-case handling; Kalshi offers only a binary win/loss outcome with minimal specification.Hero tip: Do not treat these as equivalent markets. Polymarket's granular markets allow precise outcome hedging; Kalshi's binary market is a simple winner-take-all bet. Monitor UFC official sources for edge cases (draw, no contest, postponement beyond August 1, 2026), which trigger 50-50 resolution on Polymarket but may not be explicitly addressed on Kalshi.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Offers 8 distinct markets: winner (Montes vs McMillen), distance (full rounds yes/no), method (KO/TKO yes/no, submission yes/no), method-specific winner (Montes KO/TKO, McMillen KO/TKO), and round duration thresholds (O/U 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds). All markets resolve to 50-50 on draw, technical draw, no contest, not scored, cancellation, or postponement beyond August 1, 2026. Resolution source: official UFC information. Key Quote: 'If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 1, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50.'
  • Kalshi: Single binary market: resolves Yes if either Tommy McMillen or Alberto Montes wins the fight originally scheduled for July 18, 2026. No method, distance, or edge-case specifications provided. Resolution source: implicit UFC official determination. Key Quote: 'If Tommy McMillen wins the McMillen vs Montes professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Jul 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Alberto Montes" if Alberto Montes is officially declared the winner of the fight against Tommy McMillen at UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman, scheduled for July 18, 2026. It will resolve to "Tommy McMillen" if Tommy McMillen is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 1, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

Resolution depends on the official fight outcome. If the fight is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled bout concludes within two weeks. Ties or no-contests resolve at 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled beyond two weeks, the market resolves to a fair price per standard rules.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market data across Polymarket and Kalshi for the Montes vs. McMillen UFC fight, allowing you to monitor real-time odds and trading volume on multiple outcomes. Traders on each platform are pricing their own view of how the featherweight matchup will unfold, from fight result to method of victory. By tracking both venues simultaneously, you gain visibility into consensus expectations and spot divergences in how each community values different scenarios. The aggregated volume across platforms reflects the combined interest in this event.

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price outcomes differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets reflect the collective belief of traders who profit or lose based on accuracy. Prediction market prices often incorporate real-time information and trader conviction more directly than traditional sportsbooks, which may lag during breaking news or shifts in public sentiment. Neither is inherently more accurate, but comparing the two can reveal where consensus diverges and highlight potential value.

Fighter news such as injury reports, training camp updates, or withdrawal announcements can trigger sharp repricing. Weigh-in results, last-minute coaching changes, or public statements from either competitor may shift trader sentiment. Betting action on external sportsbooks or social media momentum can also influence prediction market prices as information cascades across venues. Historical performance data, recent fight footage analysis, and expert commentary closer to the event date typically drive the largest moves as traders refine their models with fresh intelligence.