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UFC 330: Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

UFC 330: Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)

Volume:
$461,049

Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias

 - Polymarket

Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

Closed: Aug 15, 7:14 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$325,931
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

KO/TKO/DQ

View
100%
61%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25,633
N/A
N/A
$19,337
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
44%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$505
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fernando to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
53%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$4,190
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
41%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$778
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$720
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
44%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$56,470
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
33%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$41,069
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Submission

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,642
N/A
N/A
$3,554
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$97
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Decision

View
0%
63%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,871
N/A
N/A
$1,778
Settled
No
polymarket

Tobias to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$111
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Draw/No Contest

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$32
N/A
N/A
$32
Settled
No
Total markets: 13

Description

This group of markets covers the outcome of the UFC 330 fight between Lucas Fernando and Rafael Tobias, including who wins, how the fight ends, and how long it lasts.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets across Polymarket and Kalshi resolve based on the same official UFC fight result with consistent handling of draws, No Contests, and cancellations.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the UFC

Core resolution logic:

  • The fight winner (Lucas Fernando or Rafael Tobias) determines the outcome for the main market.
  • Method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision) determines outcomes for method-specific markets.
  • Fight duration determines outcomes for over/under round markets.
  • Draws, No Contests, cancellations, or postponements beyond August 29, 2026 resolve as 50-50 for all markets.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact Threshold: If a fight ends exactly at a threshold (e.g., exactly at the 2:30 mark of Round 1 for O/U 0.5 Rounds), it resolves as 50-50.
  • Disqualification: Fights ending in disqualification resolve as 'No' for KO/TKO and submission markets, and as '50-50' for duration markets if the fight is not scored.
Timing: Resolution occurs after the official UFC declaration of the fight result, no later than August 29, 2026.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Lucas Fernando" if Lucas Fernando is officially declared the winner of the fight against Rafael Tobias at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026. It will resolve to "Rafael Tobias" if Rafael Tobias is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes if the Rafael Tobias vs. Lucas Fernando fight scheduled for August 15, 2026, concludes via any of the following outcomes: KO/TKO/DQ, Submission, Decision, or Draw/No Contest. Each primary rule defines a specific method of victory or unresolved result that triggers a Yes resolution. The market essentially covers all possible official results of the match, regardless of how the fight ends—whether by a fighter’s decisive action, a referee’s intervention, judges’ scorecards, or an unexpected disruption leading to a draw or no contest. Secondary rules clarify that Kalshi is not affiliated with the governing league and that all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.