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$113,466,932

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2,388,728,490

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$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)
predict
polymarket
kalshi

UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)

Volume:
$39,853,249

Islam Makhachev

 - Kalshi

Islam Makhachev - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 16, 2026

Closed: Aug 16, 12:24 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Islam Makhachev

View
100%
23%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$13,249,267
N/A
N/A
$9,885,765
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry

View
100%
25%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,738,933
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry

View
99%
22%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$23,663
$63,832
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ian Machado Garry

View
0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,162,595
N/A
N/A
$15,810,217
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
46%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$247,712
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 4.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$98,979
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7,659
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,012
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 3.5 Rounds

View
100%
36%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,876
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
15%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,340
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Machado Garry to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$119,313
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
35%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$64,720
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Makhachev to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$56,288
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$32,725
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 14

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC 330 fight between Islam Makhachev and Ian Machado Garry will go over or under 1.5 rounds. The aggregated consensus probability for the leading outcome, O/U 1.5 Rounds, is 98.0%. Data is aggregated from Predict, Polymarket, and Kalshi, with resolution based on official UFC announcements and results. Watch for the fight's conclusion on August 15, 2026, to confirm the official result.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use the same resolution criteria based on official UFC declarations for fight outcomes, methods of victory, and fight duration thresholdsPrimary resolution logic: Official UFC announcements and results

Core resolution logic:

  • The fight winner determines resolution for head-to-head markets
  • KO/TKO, submission, and duration thresholds are evaluated based on official timing and stoppage declarations
  • Draws, no contests, cancellations, or postponements beyond August 29, 2026 resolve as 50-50 for applicable markets

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact Threshold: If a fight ends exactly at a round threshold (e.g., 2:30 mark), it resolves as 50-50 for over/under markets
  • Disqualification: Fights ending in disqualification resolve as 'No' for KO/TKO and submission markets, and do not count as a win for either fighter
Timing: Resolution occurs after the official UFC announcement of the fight result, typically within 24 hours of the eventOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Islam Makhachev" if Islam Makhachev is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ian Machado Garry at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026. It will resolve to "Ian Machado Garry" if Ian Machado Garry is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

If Islam Makhachev wins the Makhachev vs Garry professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ian Machado Garry wins the Makhachev vs Garry professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Islam Makhachev" if Islam Makhachev is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ian Machado Garry at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026. It will resolve to "Ian Machado Garry" if Ian Machado Garry is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Frequently asked questions

The UFC 330 welterweight title fight market dashboard aggregates real-time data from multiple prediction platforms, offering a consensus view of trader sentiment for this market. It displays cumulative volume of $39,853,249 and 24-hour volume of $35,723,266, alongside probability splits that reflect collective expectations about the bout’s outcome. By centralizing these metrics, the dashboard enables users to monitor shifts in market confidence as fight day approaches, helping them spot trends before placing trades.

Key signals that could shift this market include injury updates, training performance leaks, changes in betting volumes on either platform, and any public statements from the fighters or coaches. Media coverage leading up to the event can also sway trader sentiment, especially if one competitor gains momentum through recent wins or promotional events. All these factors may cause rapid shifts in implied probabilities before the bout.