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UFC 330: Edson Barboza vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

UFC 330: Edson Barboza vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims)

Volume:
$4,013,963

Esteban Ribovics

 - Kalshi

Esteban Ribovics - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 16, 2026

Closed: Aug 15, 9:39 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Esteban Ribovics

View
100%
14%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,262,081
N/A
N/A
$1,080,333
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ribovics to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
37%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,983
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
37%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,014
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$16
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Edson Barboza

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,402,041
N/A
N/A
$2,051,295
Settled
No
polymarket

Edson Barboza vs. Esteban Ribovics

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$212,592
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$123,211
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
29%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,868
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,548
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$330
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Barboza to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$279
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC 330 lightweight fight between Edson Barboza and Esteban Ribovics will last more than half a round. The aggregated consensus probability for the leading outcome, over/under 0.5 rounds, is currently 93.0%. Data comes from Kalshi and Polymarket, with resolution based on official information from the UFC. Watch the August 15, 2026 event date to see if the fight concludes within the opening round.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets across Polymarket and Kalshi resolve using the same official UFC results, with consistent handling of draws, No Contests, cancellations, and postponements.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the UFC

Core resolution logic:

  • The winner is determined by the UFC's official declaration
  • Draws, No Contests, cancellations, or postponements beyond August 29, 2026 resolve specific markets to 50-50
  • Fight duration markets resolve based on whether the fight completes scheduled rounds
  • Victory method markets (KO/TKO, Submission) resolve based on the official method of victory as declared by the UFC

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Draw or No Contest: Specific markets resolve to 50-50; winner markets resolve based on official declaration
  • Postponement beyond August 29, 2026: All markets resolve to 50-50 unless otherwise specified
  • Exact threshold crossings: Markets with exact thresholds (e.g., O/U rounds) resolve to 50-50 if the fight ends exactly at the threshold
Timing: Resolution occurs immediately after the UFC officially declares the fight result, with all markets settling based on that declarationOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Edson Barboza" if Edson Barboza is officially declared the winner of the fight against Esteban Ribovics at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026. It will resolve to "Esteban Ribovics" if Esteban Ribovics is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

If Edson Barboza wins the Barboza vs Ribovics professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Esteban Ribovics wins the Barboza vs Ribovics professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Barboza vs. Ribovics fight market aggregates activity across multiple venues, showing real-time consensus and volume. It tracks how traders on different platforms price the likelihood of various outcomes, reflecting collective expectations for this matchup. The view combines data to give a unified perspective on market sentiment and trends, helping users monitor shifts in opinion as the event approaches.

Prediction market odds often differ from traditional sportsbook lines due to diverse participant motivations and information sources. While sportsbooks may set lines based on broader public betting patterns and adjusted margins, prediction markets let traders react instantly to new data, such as fighter injuries or training updates. This can create price gaps, especially for niche events like this market, where specialized insights influence outcomes more than general popularity.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices can vary because user bases and trading behaviors differ. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, one platform might attract more sharp traders analyzing fight specifics, while another could reflect broader public sentiment. Differences in liquidity and fee structures also play a role, allowing more aggressive pricing on venues with deeper order books. These factors combine to produce distinct odds for the same question.