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24H VOL:

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404,028

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2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

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VS.

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UFC 329: Zachary Reese vs. Ryan Gandra (Middleweight, Early Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the Zachary Reese vs. Ryan Gandra fight?

Volume:
$875,069

Ryan Gandra

 - Kalshi

Ryan Gandra - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 5:29 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Ryan Gandra

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$294,878
N/A
N/A
$244,265
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Gandra to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,337
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$81
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Zach Reese

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$291,985
N/A
N/A
$280,735
Settled
No
polymarket

Zachary Reese vs. Ryan Gandra

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$265,696
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,396
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,160
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Reese to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$535
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 11

Description

UFC 329 middleweight early preliminary bout between Zachary Reese and Ryan Gandra scheduled for July 11, 2026. Markets cover fight winner, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), and fight duration thresholds. Polymarket offers granular outcome markets while Kalshi provides a binary winner-determination market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's binary winner market lacks explicit edge-case handling (draws, no contests, cancellations) that Polymarket addresses via 50-50 splits. Scope difference rather than logical contradiction.Hero tip: Treat Polymarket markets as the authoritative resolution framework for this fight group. Kalshi's binary structure is compatible with decisive outcomes but ambiguous for non-finishes. Request Kalshi clarification on draw/no-contest treatment before settlement. All Polymarket method-of-victory markets (KO/TKO, submission, distance) use identical cancellation logic and are internally consistent.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Comprehensive outcome coverage with explicit edge-case protocol. Winner market resolves to named fighter or "50-50" for draw/technical draw/no contest/not scored/canceled/postponed beyond July 25, 2026. Method-of-victory markets (KO/TKO by either fighter, submission, distance thresholds) all follow identical no-contest/cancellation logic. Resolution source: official UFC information.
  • Kalshi: Binary winner determination only. Resolves "Yes" if either Reese or Gandra wins. No explicit protocol for draws, no contests, cancellations, or postponements. Resolution source not specified. Silent on edge cases creates settlement ambiguity.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Zachary Reese" if Zachary Reese is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ryan Gandra at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026. It will resolve to "Ryan Gandra" if Ryan Gandra is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the winner of the Gandra vs Reese professional MMA fight originally scheduled for July 11, 2026. If the fight is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled fight concludes within two weeks. In the event of a tie or no contest, both fighter markets resolve to 50/50. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled beyond two weeks, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with the rules.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets operate on continuous trading rather than fixed lines, allowing odds to shift dynamically as new information emerges. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, which manage risk through margin and limits, platforms like these aggregate thousands of independent traders' views into a single price. This often produces sharper, more efficient odds—particularly for niche matchups. Sportsbooks may lag behind market repricing, especially when fighter news, injury reports, or social sentiment shift rapidly between now and fight night.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can cause temporary price divergence. Polymarket and Kalshi also operate under distinct regulatory frameworks and market-making incentives. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these gaps, but on lower-volume events like early prelims, spreads may persist longer. Platform-specific UI design and user base composition also influence how quickly new information is priced in.

Fighter injury announcements, weight-cut complications, or late withdrawals can trigger sharp repricing. Social media momentum, training camp updates, or analyst commentary may shift trader sentiment gradually. Odds from offshore sportsbooks or sharp money flowing into one side can signal informed positioning. Weigh-in results and fighter walkout energy on fight day itself represent the final catalysts before the bell rings, though most repricing typically occurs in the 48 hours before the bout.