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402,751

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2,632

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5

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UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the UFC 329 light heavyweight fight between Whittaker and Krylov?

Volume:
$5,669,898

Robert Whittaker

 - Kalshi

Robert Whittaker - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 12, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 8:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Robert Whittaker

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,686,068
N/A
N/A
$1,894,869
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$978,085
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$11,362
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,898
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Whittaker to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,170
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$77
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Nikita Krylov

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,975,473
N/A
N/A
$1,600,211
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,186
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Krylov to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,632
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$643
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$304
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC 329 light heavyweight preliminary bout between Robert Whittaker and Nikita Krylov will extend beyond 0.5 rounds, aggregating data from Kalshi and Polymarket with resolution sourced from UFC.com. The consensus probability for the over/under 0.5 rounds outcome stands at 96.0%. Watch the scheduled fight date of July 11, 2026, to see how the actual bout duration resolves against this threshold.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi market is logically malformed and lacks essential resolution criteria. Both fighters cannot resolve to Yes simultaneously, and no edge-case handling is defined. Polymarket provides comprehensive, mutually exclusive markets with explicit edge-case rules.Hero tip: Disregard Kalshi market as unreliable. Use Polymarket's 8-market suite as the authoritative settlement framework. Confirm fight occurs by July 25, 2026 via ufc.com before settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Eight distinct, mutually exclusive markets covering: (1) Whittaker KO/TKO win, (2) Krylov KO/TKO win, (3) Any KO/TKO, (4) Submission, (5) Fight to distance, (6) Overall winner, (7-9) Round duration thresholds (O/U 0.5, 1.5, 2.5). Each includes explicit 50-50 resolution for no contests, draws, disqualifications, and postponements beyond July 25, 2026. Key quote: 'If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50.'
  • Kalshi: Single binary market stating 'If Robert Whittaker wins... Yes. If Nikita Krylov wins... Yes.' Logically contradictory (both cannot be Yes). No method-of-victory specification, no edge-case handling for draws/no contests/postponements, no timing cutoff defined. Key quote: 'If Robert Whittaker wins the Krylov vs Whittaker professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Jul 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Nikita Krylov wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Robert Whittaker" if Robert Whittaker is officially declared the winner of the fight against Nikita Krylov at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026. It will resolve to "Nikita Krylov" if Nikita Krylov is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

Resolution depends on the fight outcome occurring on or shortly after the originally scheduled date of July 11, 2026. If the fight is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled bout concludes within two weeks. In the event of a tie or no contest, both fighters receive a 50/50 split resolution. Should the fight be cancelled or rescheduled beyond two weeks from the original date, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with established rules.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market activity across Polymarket and Kalshi for the Whittaker vs. Krylov UFC 329 fight, giving you a unified view of how traders are pricing the outcome. You can monitor real-time odds, trading volume, and consensus probability across both platforms simultaneously. The cross-platform tracker helps you spot pricing gaps and track how sentiment shifts as fight day approaches, making it easier to compare market efficiency and identify potential value.

Prediction markets like these operate on crowd-sourced pricing, where traders directly buy and sell shares reflecting their belief in an outcome. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, which set fixed odds and profit from the spread, prediction markets aggregate distributed opinions into a consensus probability. This can sometimes reveal sharper or earlier signals than sportsbook lines, especially as new information emerges. However, sportsbooks often benefit from professional oddsmakers and deeper liquidity, so comparing both sources provides a fuller picture of market sentiment.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different market structures, user bases, and liquidity conditions. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform's fee structure, trading interface, and regulatory framework can influence how quickly prices adjust to new information. Differences in user sophistication, geographic distribution, and order flow may also cause temporary pricing gaps. Traders monitoring both venues can sometimes exploit these spreads, though arbitrage typically narrows discrepancies over time as the event approaches.

Fighter news—injuries, training updates, or weight-cut issues—can significantly shift odds in either direction. Changes in betting patterns on external sportsbooks or social media sentiment may also influence trader behavior here. Weigh-in results, last-minute fighter withdrawals, or opponent changes would trigger sharp repricing. Media coverage, expert analysis, and historical performance data released closer to fight day can all move the needle. Monitor official UFC communications and fighter social accounts for developments that could alter market expectations.